Last time we covered Village Farms (TSE:VFF), it was to take a deep dive into the operations of their joint venture subsidiary Pure Sunfarms.
Pure Sunfarms remains the lowest cost greenhouse cannabis grower in Canada and continues to gobble up market share from higher-cost licensed producers who were previously selling their “first mover” and “branding” advantage, which now looks like a mirage.
Now Pure Sunfarms is explicitly coming for the low end of the market with its low-cost supply.
Coupled with mid-grade flower that is currently the most popular online offering in Ontario, Village Farms is building a cannabis business that is successfully competing against larger growers who were first to market.
Village Farms announced two new initiatives today that will have far-reaching implications for both the Canadian and European cannabis markets in the months to come.
We’ll take you through the details and why Village Farms is both the investment and the competitor that every investor needs to have on their radar.
A New Offering for Consumers
Today Pure Sunfarms announced plans to make a splash in the value segment of the market by putting out their own large format, low cost dried flower offering.
The new product will be a 1 oz package (28 grams) similar to Original Stash from HEXO and Daily Special from Aurora Cannabis.
Pricing has not yet been announced but we expect it will meet or beat competitors due to Pure Sunfarms’ cost advantage.
It will initially be available only in British Columbia but will hit the Ontario Cannabis Store by early April and roll out to other provinces over time..
With this new product, Pure Sunfarms hopes to undercut every other licensed producer’s offerings, and we have good reason to believe they will be able to do so.
As we noted back in the deep dive, Village Farms, through Pure Sunfarms, has the lowest greenhouse production cost out of all the major players in the cannabis industry.
Village Farms products do exceptionally well at capturing the lower end as the flower quality increasingly looks unmatched for the price point.
We think it’s likely Village Farms will take a commanding market share on the low end of the market as well.
Cannabis 2.0 and International Expansion Is Next
Village Farms International (TSE:VFF) has announced that its majority-owned joint venture Pure Sunfarms, has received approval from the government to operate a 65,000 sq. ft. facility that will be used to generate further cost efficiencies for the company.
With this new facility, Village Farms and Pure Sunfarms will now enter the Cannabis 2.0 market where they may potentially continue to beat the larger producers at their own game.
This news comes at a good time for Village Farms as it allows them to further press their advantage.
The facility was also designed from the ground-up to satisfy EU GMP certification requirements, which is a necessity to conduct cannabis businesses in the EU.
Village Farms will become a major competitor to export leaders Aurora, Canopy, Aphria, and Cronos in the coming months.
Still Winning Market Share in the Largest Province
According to official data from the Ontario Cannabis Store (OCS), Pure Sunfarms’ brands dominate sales by both dollars and kilograms sold.
For year-to-date ended Feb. 29, 2020, Pure Sunfarms achieved a 13.5% market share by kilograms sold in Ontario. This is compared to 13.0% market share for the whole year of 2019.
The growth of market shares seems small at first, but keep in mind that the extra 0.5% market share came after just two months of operations in the beginning of 2020.
Further, Pure Sunfarms also seized 2 out of the top 4 spots of strains of cannabis sold by dollar amount.
Investors should keep in mind that Ontario remains the largest province in Canada by population and has the largest addressable market for cannabis out of all provinces, which makes dominating the business in Ontario of paramount importance for any cannabis company.
According to the Financial Post, recreational cannabis sales totalled $217 million — or about 24% of the overall Canadian market in the time period between October 2018 to September 2019.
Is Now the Time to Buy Some Village Farms Stock?
The decision to begin building a position in Village Farms stock comes down to each investor’s time horizon.
If you plan to buy your position and sit on it for a year or more, we think the current market selloff offers a compelling entry point.
The global cash crunch for cannabis fundraising coupled with the ongoing Coronavirus crisis means that market sentiment really can’t get much worse.
In our opinion, investors who buy Village Farms below $3.00/sh are giving themselves a solid chance to generate market-beating returns over the next 2-5 years.
Now if you are looking into Village Farms for a short-term trading opportunity, then the situation is a bit more uncertain.
With the Coronavirus running rampant in America and causing the shutdown of major developed markets worldwide, we think the economic fallout is just beginning.
Though some sectors are already rebounding, we think the market is in for more pain if the virus is not contained in the next 2-4 weeks.
For this reason, we believe there could be more downside in Village Farms and other cannabis stocks before a long-term rebound begins.
The future in cannabis truly is bright, but to make money in this sector investors will need to have patience.
The opinions provided in this article are those of the author and do not constitute investment advice. Readers should assume that the author and/or employees of Grizzle hold positions in the company or companies mentioned in the article. For more information, please see our Content Disclaimer.