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Market Strategy
with Chris Wood
With an Energy and Funding Advantage, is China’s DRAM Machine Unstoppable?
There has been a general surprise that markets have not corrected more in recent months...
The Chinese Memory Tsunami
It is now more than 14 weeks since the US-Israel attack on Iran, and there...
Emerging Markets Have A Semiconductor Problem
The newsflow remains focused on the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz, with the...
Why The AI Picks-and-Shovels Boom May Be Peaking
The key medium-term issue for the US stock market at the start of 2026 remains...
The Hedge Fund House of Cards Propping Up US Treasuries
This writer remains of the view that Treasury bonds are in a structural bear market...
War, Tariffs, and Trump: The Midterm Reckoning
At one point this writer used to think that the mid-term elections were not so...
Private Credit – This Cycles Systemic Risk
The Iran war is in the headline for entirely understandable reason. But AI remains the...
China’s Energy Endgame: Is Battery Storage Making LNG and Nuclear Obsolete?
This writer is no energy expert. But it is becoming increasingly apparent that energy could...
So You Think Globalization is Over? China Has Other Ideas
Donald Trump’s agenda may be all about attacking globalization. But China has continued to take...
AI Compute is Ramping, But is Demand There to Meet it?
The base case remains that the US reached an all-time peak of world stock market...
Are BYD and CATL Coming to America?
The Trumpian driven news cycle continues to dominate, as reflected in the recent headlines concerning...
The US is Now One Big Bet on AI
“The US is now one big bet on AI”. This was the headline in an...
AI Stock Buyers Beware
It is the strangest of worlds. AI capex mania in the US gets ever more...
What’s Going on in Japan?
Japan has been one of the stock markets favoured by this writer. There has recently...
Is More Pain to Come for Indian Stocks From Trump’s 50% Export Tariffs?
27 August was the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday in India. But it was not a happy...
The Real Sticking Point in China-US Negotiations
The path is set for another Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting on Wednesday...
What if Chinese AI Stocks are the Better Value
The view here has been that the US made an all time peak as a...
Understanding China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign
China remains the best example of a country which has not succumbed to the pressure...
The Recession That Never Was
The base case remains for a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September...
An Exploration of Trump’s View on Crypto, Short Term Treasuries and Yield Curve Control
“Trump and hubris” is a phrase that has come to mind of late. It in...
An Emboldening Trump is a Risk to Future Stock Gains
The US stock market continues to celebrate the AI capex trade while ignoring the tariff...
The Stock Market is Eating The Economy
The US stock market remains extremely resilient in the face of the rise in tariffs....
America’s Deteriorating Finances and Why You Shouldn’t Own the Dollar
One topic highlighted in this column of late has been the dramatic deterioration in America’s...
Has Passive Investing Gone Too Far?
This writer was interested to read of late about research on the distorting impact of...
Key Takeaways From Our Recent Trip to Beijing
Two things are clear from a recent visit to the China capital. First, there is...
Analysis of the Ongoing China-US Trade Talks
The recently concluded US trade deals with Japan and Europe, or perhaps it should be...
Stablecoins, Bonds & Hyperscalers Oh My!
The US stock market has continued to rally even as the tariff threat lingers. Investors...
Global Equities Are Breaking Out, Should You Chase?
This writer is not a chart watcher by trade. But it is not necessary to...
What is the Right Tariff Rate for China?
The IMF-World Bank Spring meeting talking shop in Washington in late April served a highly...
Why The Time Has Come to Overweight International Stocks
Whatever the exact trigger, the extraordinarily recent sharp appreciation of Taiwan’s currency, the NT dollar,...
US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?
The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the...
The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy
The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop....
In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve
“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to...
US Colleges Have a $1 Trillion Illiquid Asset Problem
“Liberation Impoverishment day” on 2 April more than lived up to this writer’s expectations with...
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused...
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations...
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market...
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic...
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take...
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April...
The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst
The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest...
Understanding Argentina’s Economic Reawakening
As financial markets bet about the policies of the Trump administration, be it DOGE spending...
Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”
The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s...
Brazil Deep Dive: Is This Market Worth Your Time?
This writer was recently in Brazil for the first time in a year. There has...
Two Years is Too Long…The AI Conundrum
It can legitimately be described as the stampede from wokeism. Since Donald Trump’s decisive electoral...
The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025
US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December...
Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case
One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s...
Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?
The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings...
Is China Weaponizing US Dollar Bonds?
Wall Street has bought to remain focused on the bullish side of Donald Trump’s agenda,...
Bubble or Bull Market – Trump Will Decide
On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, there has obviously been a lot of tariff-related...
Back from El Salvador, We are Very Bullish Bitcoin in 2025
The price of Bitcoin has consolidated of late after the 62% price surge triggered by...
Will February 23rd Mark the Day Europe Becomes Investable?
All the evidence is that Donald Trump is much more prepared for his second term...
The Research & Quant 2025 Market Outlook
It may just turn out to be the case that the most important Federal Reserve...
2025 Will Be the Year of Memory, Not GPUs
To state the obvious, the AI story has been the key driver of the US...
Private Credit’s Incredible Vanishing Cashflow
The flow into private credit continues to be viewed by this writer as one of...
Has China’s Property Market Bottomed?
Has China’s property market bottomed? There has been a noticeable pick up in residential property...
Economic Boom? What Does the Data Say?
The consensus of markets prior to the US presidential election was that a Federal Reserve...
Will Trump End the Ukraine Conflict?
It has all been about the US presidential election of late with the initial market...
Why India Will Be The Best Emerging Market Over the Next 10 Years
With everybody focused on the US presidential election, this is a good time to look...
Evaluating World Geopolitics and a Trump Victory
On the US presidential election, the ElectionBettingOdds.com website now shows 61.4% odds of a Trump...
Is Labor Hoarding Masking Job Market Weakness?
US employment data remains key to stress-test the extent of Fed easing expectations currently priced...
The Underestimated Risk of Deflation in America
If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the commencement of monetary easing in his 23...
Handicapping The Chances of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Donald Trump made a speech at the annual Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in late...
The Asset Class That Could Stoke the Flames of a Stock Market Selloff
It is a reality of financial markets that market declines are made worse by forced...
Is More Carry Trade Volatility In Store for Markets?
Financial markets found out about the potential for a yen carry trade unwind last month...
The Growing Risk of The Treasury’s Addiction to Short Term Debt
There was an interesting study published recently that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen felt obligated...
Gold and Bitcoin Tactical Update
This writer still believes in Bitcoin. Still it is worth noting that the recent extended...
India or America – Where Should Your Money Go Next?
“Donald Trumps Death” was the cleverly written headline in the Times of India on 15...
Why Taiwan Should be in Your Portfolio
The chart below shows that the Nvidia share price and Taiwan’s outperformance relative to the...
Don’t be Fooled, The Gov’t Bond Bear Market Marches On
The announcement by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in late June that it was raising...
Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table
The US employment data has remained critical for the many hoping for a resumption of...
All the Reasons For and Against a Fed Rate Cut in September
The hopes for pre-election Federal Reserve easing have increased since the latest employment and inflation...
When Will Local Buying Drive Japanese Stocks to New Highs?
The pressure on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to rise, in terms of...
The Chinese Property Crash is Heating Up – When Will the Bounce Come?
The pace of property easing in China accelerated last quarter to its most intense level...
Treasury Yields are Falling But Don’t Be Fooled
The Treasury bond market has been rallying of late on softer US data. This can...
How Could Geopolitics Influence The Election?
Financial media continues to focus on such matters as Fed policy and the endless chatter...
Breaking Down the Popularity and Risks of Private Debt
Private credit is the booming asset class, an asset class which has done a brilliant...
What a “No Landing” Means for Your Portfolio
It is important in observing markets to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader,...
Are Gold Prices Being Manipulated?
An old contact told this writer recently of something he was not aware of. That...
Betting on Lower Interest Rates?
Federal Reserve statements and press conferences are probably more over analysed and commented upon than...
Tracking Three Risks That Could Sink Markets: Oil, Geopolitics and Private Debt
It remains the case that the last thing the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve...
Is Japan’s Stock Party Over, or Is the Best Yet to Come?
“Government may declare official end of deflation”. This was a frontpage headline in the Japan...
Is China Investable Yet?
The Chinese economy remains the world’s second largest, with a GDP of US$18tn, so it...
Positioning for More Rate Hikes No Longer Looks Crazy
Sometimes it is important to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader, not to...
Big Changes are Underfoot in Eurozone Politics
For understandable reasons, media focus remains primarily on US politics with a presidential election due...
Is Argentina’s Economic Experiment Working?
Argentina’s recently elected President Javier Milei made headlines when he made a speech at Davos...
What Will it Take to Turn China Around?
The concerns about intensifying deflationary momentum continue to build in China with the release of...
The Real Motivation Behind Fed Rate Cuts
This writer focused last week on the fact that the liquidity contraction is only now...
The US Economy is Strong…But for How Much Longer?
The base case remains that the US is heading into a downturn in 2024 as...
The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt
Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC...
Investors Left Hong Kong Real Estate for Dead, Should You?
If sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains super depressed, the same also applies to domestic Hong...
What Do Japanese Stocks and US Small Business Have in Common?
This writer’s main candidates for the areas to blow up if there is a recession...
Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no...
With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren’t We in a Recession Already?
The action in Big Tech stocks has continued to be amazingly resilient, helped by the...
Move Over China, Here Comes India
From a market standpoint, as opposed to a geopolitical one, there has so far been...
With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?
The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that...
Move Over Core Inflation, Headline is All that Matters Now
Amidst the never ending focus on Federal Reserve policy there remains the remarkably undiscussed issue...
India Stocks – Buy the Dip
This writer arrived in Delhi of late to see the Indian capital lit up like...
America’s Trade Policy Hypocrisy
The so-called Global South is increasingly wary of what it views as the double standards...
A Treasury Maturity Wall is Coming, Is Your Portfolio Ready?
Geopolitics is back driving the newsflow with events in the Middle East. Meanwhile, there is...
Will Xi Allow the US Style Housing Bailout China Desperately Needs?
Higher for longer has undoubtedly been the consensus among investors in recent months. Money markets...
Where to Hide if the US Government Bond Selloff Continues
This writer remains a structural bear on US Treasury bonds and indeed also on G7...
Inflation Could be the Casualty of OPEC’s Return to Oil Market Dominance
The oil price has corrected in recent days. The Brent crude oil price has declined...
If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market
The key issue for world markets remains when monetary tightening is going to bite in...
The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes
There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of...
A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming
The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along...
What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?
It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make...
Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb
With no sign as yet of a commencement of Federal Reserve easing, the longstanding view...
Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?
The working assumption that the Chinese have turned temporarily Japanese is borne out by the...
What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation
There is no doubt that the pain trade in recent months got ever more painful...
Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next
The oil price has started to rise again this past week after an extended period...
Move Over China, India’s Time Has Come
As many global investors have now decided that China is “uninvestable”, it increasingly looks like...
China Needs a Catalyst, But Where Will it Come From?
The Economist cover syndrome is always a potential contrarian signal as history has demonstrated. And...
Key Takeaways From My Trip to Mini-Davos
Moving away from the financial markets, this writer attended, of late, two starkly different conferences...
Low Inflation or Jobs, Which Will Jerome Powell Choose?
The recent regional bank jitters are a reminder that deposit flows out of US banks...
The AI Boom Won’t Save All Tech Stocks
The world of tech has a new killer app and history shows that killer apps...
US-China Relations Are About to Get Worse Before They Get Better
The base case remains a continuing deterioration in US-China relations. That said, a speech on...
Are US Small Businesses Ok?
The small business sector has become very important to monitor as regards the state of...
The Age of American Financial Dominance is Over, Here’s What Comes Next
The most amazing statistic this writer has read about the concentrated nature of the first...
Where Do Stock Prices Go If We See Fed Easing AND Falling Earnings At the Same Time?
The continuing problem as regards the American banking system is that the Silicon Valley Bank...
Here is Your Stock Market Roadmap for the Rest of 2023 and 2024
As concerns over US regional banks continue to percolate, it is worth noting that the...
When Will the Recession Start? The Answer May Surprise You
Monetary tightening expectations in the US have ratcheted up again, with the terminal rate now...
Small Business, Not the Bond Market, Will Cause the Next Recession
A counterintuitive in terms of the rising recession talk in recent months has been the...
The Fed Fudge is Quickly Approaching
Inflation is falling but not as quickly as the Federal Reserve would wish. US headline...
Will the Stars Finally Align for Japanese Stocks?
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has finally departed from office after ten years of...
Canary, Meet Leveraged Loans
It remains remarkable how little US corporate bond spreads have risen so far in this...
Gold is Back, Next Stop $6,000?
The price of gold bullion has bounced back in recent days amidst Silicon Valley Bank-related...
As Global Trade Fractures, Inflation will Rise
It has, of late, become increasingly relevant to talk less about the retreat from globalization...
Is a Consumer Revolt at Hand?
A counterintuitive development in recent months, in the context of recession concerns in America, has...
The Consumer is Almost Tapped Out, What Comes Next?
This year began with growing optimism that emerging markets can decouple in a year which...
Beware The Passive ETF Unwind
China’s abrupt but welcome Covid U-turn creates the best chance in many years for Asia...
The Yen Rally is Running on Borrowed Time
The interesting point about Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s adjustment of yield curve control...
Why Inflation Could Overshoot to the Downside in 2023
The chart below highlights why investors have growing confidence that US inflation has peaked, which...
Why 2% Inflation is Right Around the Corner
China has gone from closet Covid easing over the Christmas holiday to a full-scale U-turn...
Is the Chinese Stock Market Off to the Races?
It has been a long time coming, but China has finally signaled the importance of...
China is Entering a New Era
China will continue to be run primarily around politics not economics. This is the chief...
Can Anything Kill The Energy Bull Market?
There is no doubt that energy is a core part of the fractious political debate...
The Shadow Semiconductor Wars Explained
If the Ukraine situation is one kind of warfare, even though Russian President Vladimir Putin...
The S&P 500 Earnings Recession is Already Here, Will it Get Worse?
The base effect worked for investors with last week’s October US CPI data. Remember, the...
Is a Dramatic Market Switch from Energy to Metals Possible?
This has so far been an annus horribilis for gold mining stocks with gold stocks...
The Ugly Truth about Inflation
The US CPI report remains by far the most important monthly data point globally, as...
Listen to This Fed Governor for Signs of a Fed Pivot
The “situation” remains the inverse of Goldilocks for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets with the...
The Best Global Equity Story is India
With world markets so jittery, it is worth focusing again on what is probably the...
Can Anything Stop China’s Property Meltdown?
Pushing on a string as regards the mainland Chinese economy was the theme discussed here...
Have Supply Shortages Made Oil Stocks Recession Proof?
A constructive view is maintained on energy despite concerns on demand destruction and related recession...
Europe’s Long Hailed Fiscal Union is Finally Upon Us
There is growing potential for market focus to switch back to the Eurozone in coming...
The Language That Could Signal a Fed Pivot
There is no doubt that Wall Street has in the relief rally underway since late...
Pushing on a String: China’s Consumer Demand Problem
Pushing on a string is a term this writer became very familiar with employing when...
Are Stocks Ready for the August Inflation Reading?
The obvious source of relief for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets, save for a Fed...
Is an End in Sight for China’s COVID Zero Policy?
The current investment quarter has been marked by financial markets acting like talk of a...
The Yen is on the Ropes, is Yield Curve Control Next?
This writer has continued to take a positive view on energy stocks. That said, energy...
Are Leveraged Loans This Cycles Ticking Time Bomb?
The longer monetary tightening proceeds the more likely it is to trigger real problems in...
Is a Ukraine Compromise Imminent?
If intensifying US monetary tightening should be theoretically bullish for Treasury bonds because it hits...
What Data Could Cause a Fed Pivot on Rates?
The outlook remains the inverse of Goldilocks. The minimum decline investors should expect, if the...
Will Midterms Spell the End of Fed Tightening?
The 10-year Treasury bond has of late broken above the 40-year trend line in place...
Why India is the Best Growth Story in Asia
In India recently for the first time in nearly three years, this writer saw nothing...
Will the Fed Squeeze the Consumer Until They Break?
The reality of stagflation has certainly been confirmed by the latest US data both as...
Big Cap Tech Stocks are Still at Risk
There was an interesting development in the US stock market in April. There were significant...
Can China Afford to Lose Control of COVID?
Attention has returned to the conflict in Ukraine with the launch of the Russian offensive...
A World Tour of Interest Rate Policies
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was always likely that US inflation would peak with...
Will Alternative Investments Cause a Lehman Moment?
Quantitative tightening is now officially on the agenda. The Fed decided in early May to...
An End to the Ukraine War Could Signal the End of Fed Tightening
It has always been likely that the outcome of Russia’s invasion would be binary. Either...
What Comes Next for Global Markets
The US bond market continues to react to the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric. The...
Stocks Think Inflation has Peaked, Economic Data Says Otherwise
The US yield curve has flattened significantly this year, ever since the release of the...
Is the Chinese Renminbi about to become the World’s New Reserve Currency?
There is an air of Western triumphalism in the air as regards the effectiveness of...
The ESG Boom has Peaked
The ESG boom may have peaked in the fourth quarter of last year. If that...
First Ukraine, Next Taiwan?
Conditions for financial markets remain the inverse of Goldilocks. Stagflation appears to be ever more...
The Japanese Yen Selloff Will Continue
If inflation and the commencement of a Federal Reserve tightening cycle have been dominating newsflow...
Growth Stocks Aren’t Out of The Woods Yet
The change in equity market leadership looks ever more pronounced in terms of the shift...
How Much Market Pain Will it Take to Reverse Fed Policy?
Those looking for a respite in the inflation scare are not getting it. Cyclical stocks...
When Does the Stock Market Trigger the Infamous Fed “Put”?
No one should be surprised to see markets attempting to rally after the tumultuous start...
6 Fed Rate Hikes, Yeah Right!
It remains all about the coming Fed tightening cycle, not only in terms of rate...
Will China Ever Give Up On COVID Lockdowns?
If this writer has continued to give the mainland authorities the benefit of the doubt...
Bond Investors Should Zig When the Fed Zags
The contrast between the US and China monetary cycles has become crystal clear in recent...
Bank Lending Holds the Key to Future Inflation
The pro-cyclical inflation story keeps building as market pundits have competed to increase their 2022...
If the US Forces an Energy Transition, Inflation Will Follow
The Time “person” of the year award is often something easy to make fun of...
The Taper Tantrum Ain’t Over Yet
This writer remains of the view that the US CPI report is now the most...
Can Disruptive Investing Survive Higher Interest Rates?
There is no doubt that expectations of monetary tightening are accelerating as reflected in the...
All Eyes are On the Fed’s Favorite Gauge of Inflation
Shoot first and ask questions later. This is the perhaps understandable and certainly predictable response...
Japanese Stocks Could Outperform All if Inflation Isn’t Transitory
The inflation debate continues to percolate as the Federal Reserve has finally dropped the word...
China and Hong Kong Real Estate are in Good Shape Despite the Headlines
Recently in Hong Kong this writer can report that Hong Kong maintains its distinctive energy....
Crypto Yields Are Slowly Killing the Dollar
The Federal Reserve announced at its 2-3 November meeting the commencement of tapering as expected....
The Big Winner of China Housing Fears? The Stock Market
Concerns continue to percolate about the Chinese property market with the Federal Reserve recently warning...
How Nordstream 2 Could Cause a Global Market Selloff
There is no doubt that investors’ focus of late has been on the stagflation story....
Inflation Ain’t Falling While Rents, Wages and Commodities are On the Rise
The world is set up for the ironic spectacle of mounting pressure from Washington on...
Stagflation Risks are Real in a World of Energy Shortages
It is both interesting and logical that the Federal Reserve signal late last month that...
Sleep on the Indian Stock Market at Your Own Risk
The Indian stock market has remained extraordinarily resilient since the Delta wave peaked in May....
How High Can Commodities Take Inflation?
If the Delta variant undoubtedly caused a setback for the cyclical trade last quarter, resulting...
Can Government Bond Market Signals Still be Trusted?
As the daily noise in the financial markets continues to focus on every word uttered...
Government’s are Coming for Big Tech, Should you be Worried?
Reports out of the mainland of late have seen a lot of discussion on President...
$4.5 Trillion of Stimulus is What Matters, Not the Fed Taper
In the “big picture” this writer continues to believe that central banks are becoming less...
China Thinks the US Will Blink First in the Trade War
The Chinese renminbi remains in an upward trend against the US dollar, even though the...
The End of the Stock Market Rebound is Only One COVID Mutation Away
The bias towards the pro-cyclical view here has in part been based on the assumption...
The US Listed Chinese ADR is Dead, Invest in the Mainland Instead
Staying on the subject of last week’s article on China, a risk of late is...
To Survive China’s Market Crackdown: Pick Your Sectors Wisely
There has been an almost perfect storm in recent weeks in terms of Chinese regulatory...
Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals
The June US CPI data came in well above consensus while the July data, released...
Do Bond Investors Know Something about the Virus We Don’t?
It is always easy to come up with ex post facto rationalizations of market action....
Owning Bonds is a Losers Game in a World of Unorthodox Money Policies
The biggest risk to the pro-cyclical view has always been that the vaccines cease to...
The Asset Speculation Game is Far from Over
Base effects mean the real test of whether the pickup in inflation will prove transitory...
A Third Major Oil Crisis is on the Horizon
A positive view is maintained here on the oil price. Indeed oil has the potential...
China’s Currency and Export Strength Show No Signs of Slowing Down
Aside from the human death toll inflicted by Covid-19, the big story about Covid-19 has...
Will China’s Crypto Crackdown Push Bitcoin into the Arms of the West?
This column discussed last week the intensifying Chinese crackdown on crypto assets which is viewed...
Bitcoins Energy Problem and China’s Crypto Crackdown
The Bitcoin price and the rest of the crypto universe has come under severe selling...
Investors Aren’t Worried About Inflation, Maybe They Should Be.
Despite the sell-off in cyclical stocks triggered by the Federal Reserve meeting last week, the...
What Will the Fed Do As Inflation Marches Higher
Inflationary pressures have continued to show up in the official data even as the bond...
Do Banks Hold the Key to Higher Inflation?
It is interesting that FAANG stocks still look like they have peaked out against the...
Only One Thing Can Derail the Post-COVID Stock Recovery
Watching inflation expectations remains key for investors even as the Federal Reserve has remained predictably...
Investors are Flocking to China as Governments Print Money
China’s orthodox monetary policy continues to be in stark contrast to the G7 world. It...
Are US Regulators Coming for Bitcoin?
One of the identifying characteristics of the crypto currency space is that crypto assets trade...
Inflation Could Drive a Massive Rotation from Bonds to Stocks
If an inflation scare is coming, it did not come with the March CPI inflation...
The Biggest Inflation Scare Since the 1980’s is Coming
The cyclical rebound in America should continue to surprise on the upside in terms of...
The Energy and Bank Stock Rebound Will Continue, Buy the Dip
There has been a bit of a pullback in the cyclical trade with US energy...
Eurozone Yield Curve Control is Happening, is This Bad for the Euro?
The Federal Reserve statement at the last FOMC meeting in March displayed no concern about...
China is the One Safe Haven for Bond Investors
One recommended trade here for global bond investors has been to sell US Treasury bonds,...
Regulation of Big Tech is Underappreciated by the Market
The view here remains that the Big Tech stocks’ market capitalisation peaked as a percentage...
No Rate Hikes Until 2023 – Or Maybe Not…
The benefit of the doubt continues to be given to the cyclical trade, which also...
The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum
The US bond market sell-off has continued and with it the increased potential for an...
Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?
Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations...
The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines
Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day...
Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide
The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view...
The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First
The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt...
Coming to America – Yield Curve Control
This column has tended to focus primarily on monetary policy as it relates to the...
India is Starting a Cyclical Recovery – Buy Indian Stocks
As good a stock market investment story in Asia as any is India. The Indian...
The “Passive Put” and Tesla’s Bitcoin Wildcard
The advice here remains to stick with the “back to normal” trade despite the scare...
China Still a Manufacturing Powerhouse. Buy the RMB, Sell the Dollar.
The US Dollar Index has over the past week fallen to its lowest level since...
Southern European Stocks Looking Juicy Driven by Gov’t Bond Buying
That a mass roll-out of vaccines is now on the horizon, on a six-month view,...
Post-COVID Liftoff: Cyclicals, Gold & Bitcoin
If anybody was in any doubt that cyclical stocks would rally sharply on the re-opening...
The Landscape is Shifting for Chinese Fintech
The US presidential election appears to be finally over. But it remains unclear how the...
How the Fed Reacts to a Vaccine Driven Recovery Will Determine the Market’s Fate
As the media focuses on the closely contested US presidential race, as well as, of...
With a Blue Wave Likely, is Big Tech in Trouble?
The “Blue Wave” is clearly the base case in the forthcoming US presidential election. Still,...
Expensive Green New Deal will Drive Energy Prices Higher not Lower
The Economist has a long-established tradition of contrarian cover signals, as have other business magazines,...
Developed Market Bonds are Dead Money, Buy Discounted Cyclicals
Is this really the top for Big Tech’s leadership of the US stock market, and...
China Offers Safety in a World of Central Banks Gone Crazy
The Federal Reserve has duly delivered on the expected softening of the inflation target in...
Gold Secular Bull Market Intact, Target Price $5,500/oz
Gold's Resilience Despite Weak Physical Markets in India & China Gold continues to behave in...
COVID Cases Contained In America and Economic Data Remains Resilient
COVID-19 Cases: Contained in America, Surging in Europe It continues to look as if new...
Trump’s Future Depends on the Path of COVID-19
European Fiscal Union & US Dollar Weakness There have been several reasons why the US...
Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher
Barbell Strategy of Cyclical & Growth Stocks The base case remains that cyclical stocks will...
COVID-19 Data Fades While US-China Tensions Flare Up
US COVID-19 Data Improving Attention remains front and center on the data for cases and...
The China Money Printer is Idle, Overweight China
China's Policy Driven Bull Market The Chinese stock market has resumed rallying since the start...
A Second Wave of COVID-19 is a “Buy the Dip” Event
More Pandemic, More Fed Bailout There remain legitimate reasons for concerns about second waves, even...
America Will do Whats Necessary to Avoid Turning a Liquidity Crisis into a Credit Crisis.
The re-opening dynamic has clearly been a positive factor. Still, the most plausible explanation for...
A US-China Cold War and the Future of Hong Kong
China Relations: The White House isn't Mincing Words There have been rising concerns of late...
The Gold Bull Market – Approaching Blue Sky Breakout
Unprecedented Central Bank Money Printing is the Reason to Own Gold The massive increase in...
Negative Rates or Not, Inflation’s at Your Doorstep
Will the Market Force Powell's Hand on Negative Rates? One assumption Grizzle has been making...
When Does the Economic Harm Outweigh the Quarantine Solution?
The S&P500 has rallied 31% off the post-crash low of 2,192 reached on 23 March...
Is the Fed Propping up Both Bond and Stock Markets?
The multiple stimulus policies announced worldwide are all very interesting. Still, what counts most in...
Europe Will Provide the Coronavirus Signal to Buy Risky Assets
Amidst the current volatility in markets, it needs to be remembered that stimulating economic activity...
Coronavirus a Crisis Test for China’s Communist Party and President Xi
The Coronavirus has continued to drive market sentiment with the S&P500 testing its late 2018...
The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Increasingly the World’s Problem
The coronavirus newsflow continues. But the focus of concern has switched dramatically from Asia to...
Stock Research
Uranium: An Attractive Relative Value Setup + The Optionality of M&A
In the face of AI and technology stocks rallying on a daily basis, uranium feels like the forgotten stepchild of growth.
Why The Bond Bear Market Marches On
The announcement by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in late June that it was raising its forecast for America’s fiscal deficit this year to US$1.915tn, by 27% from US$1.507tn in four short months since the previous estimate in February, is proof, if it was needed, that federal government finances are out of control.
Breaking Down the Popularity and Risks of Private Debt
Private credit is the booming asset class, an asset class which has done a brilliant job taking advantage of the market opportunity provided by the heavy regulation of the US commercial banking sector following the 2008 financial crisis.
ETF Research
Gold Producers: The Case Against Indexing
Grizzle Capital Discipline Gold Miners Index vs. GDX ETF: 621% vs. 267% since 2009
The LNG Update
This LNG pricing arb remains one of the clearest ways to hedge the tail risk of an extended conflict between Iran and America.
Do Tech ETFs Have an AI Problem?
When three out of the four biggest technology ETF’s, managing over $150 billion for investors, don’t hold owners of some of the largest AI trainer clusters in the world, we start asking questions.
$140 Billion of Tech ETFs are Broken in the Era of AI
The value proposition for passive ETF index investing is straightforward: low cost, liquidity and market index performance – this is the unwritten promise between asset managers and the clients plowing $13 trillion into funds tracking indices.
Videos
Fall Hard Money Conference Live! Gold, Silver & Bitcoin
Critical Minerals Roundtable
Summer Hard Money Conference Live! Gold, Silver & Bitcoin
Why the Majors Need Large Greenfield Copper Projects - Hot Chili
Kobo Resources: High Grades, Shallow Depths
Hot Chili: Copper in Short Supply
West Red Lake Gold: The Future is Bright for Mining
Ecora Resources: Building a High Quality Royalty Portfolio
A Partnership with Mining Giants: Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel
Why $50 Billion is Headed into Bitcoin ETFs in Year 1
Grizzle Hard Money Live! Gold, Silver & Bitcoin
Grizzle Battery Metals 1x1 Conference LIVE!
