The Weekender June 14th

OWN DECENTRALIZED ASSETS, BITCOIN AND GOLD

Very few on Wall Street get it, Grizzle’s top gun strategist Chris Wood does and he is bullish Bitcoin. He says to own decentralized assets, digital and physical both Bitcoin & gold.

OUTDOOR CANNABIS WILL CHANGE THE INDUSTRY

The first outdoor planting press releases are starting to roll in. The 2020 outdoor harvest will dwarf Canadian demand of ~200k kg a year and will push down prices across the value chain starting early next year. Great for consumers, but difficult for the profitability of LP’s with higher cost hybrid greenhouses. Watch outdoor closely.

HARVEST NOW GETTING 16% LESS FOR SALE OF CA ASSETS

Likely due in part to the riots in California, High Times negotiated the purchase price of Harvest’s California assets down by 16% and is paying only 2% of the deal value in cash vs 6% previously. Cash is what Harvest needs so this deal is not helping them achieve their goal of improving the cash situation and they will still have to raise money sooner than later.

CANNABIS PRICES FALL 25% IN ONTARIO

Grizzle warned investors way back in 2018 and again in late 2019 that retail cannabis prices will continue to fall. Prices are down 25% in 2019 according to the Ontario Cannabis Store and will continue to fall until excess supply meets demand. Low growing costs are all that matter for now.

PROHIBITION PARTNERS DRINK REPORT

A report full of interesting data on the potential of the cannabis-infused beverage market. Canada is leading the way in canna-beverage tech and is the bellwether to watch for indications consumer demand is there for drinks.

FLORIDA LAWSUIT BROUGHT AGAINST MSO COLUMBIA CARE

Cannabis businesses are willing to play dirty to win coveted medical licenses in fast growing states, which is not surprising due to the profits at stake. Even if Columbia Care has to settle and give up a piece of its Florida business, winning the license put them in a better financial spot than if they had played fair and failed to secure a license until years later.

UBER LOSES GRUBHUB TO JUST EAT

Uber is now stuck relying mainly on the ride hailing business which is in trouble in a pandemic world. Grubhub now potentially has more capital to engage in a price war with other U.S. food delivery players like Uber and DoorDash which is bad news for all companies involved.

ONLINE RETAIL SALES TO RISE 18% IN 2020

Online will grab 14.5% of consumer spending in 2020, up from 11% last year according to E-Marketer and will hold on to this market share even when brick and mortar stores fully reopen. The stocks of software and e-commerce company’s have been outperforming the broader market since March as investors bet this trend has legs.

THE COPPER OPPORTUNITY

We believe there is a powerful catch up trade still to play out in the copper stocks. Thomas takes you through the fundamentals of copper and the stocks we would own to play this future trend.

WE TOOK PROFITS LAST WEEK ON CRUISE LINES

On Monday’s edition of Grizzle Live, Scott explained why he was selling at least half of his position in CCL (Carnival Cruise Lines). The stock subsequently fell 20% over the next three trading days. A good refresher on why Grizzle initiated this trade in the first place.

TAKING PROFITS ON OIL STOCKS

On Monday we took you through our thought process on why our oil stock picks (SLB,XOM,HAL) had run too far, too fast. Some amazing charts looking at the history of oil rebounds are included in this short, useful video video.