Global Strategy
Low Inflation or Jobs, Which Will Jerome Powell Choose?
The recent regional bank jitters are a reminder that deposit flows out of US banks and into money market funds…
The AI Boom Won’t Save All Tech Stocks
The world of tech has a new killer app and history shows that killer apps in tech can have dramatic…
US-China Relations Are About to Get Worse Before They Get Better
The base case remains a continuing deterioration in US-China relations. That said, a speech on 20 April by US Treasury…
Are US Small Businesses Ok?
The small business sector has become very important to monitor as regards the state of the American economy. The National…
The Age of American Financial Dominance is Over, Here’s What Comes Next
The most amazing statistic this writer has read about the concentrated nature of the first quarter’s US stock market rally…
Where Do Stock Prices Go If We See Fed Easing AND Falling Earnings At the Same Time?
The continuing problem as regards the American banking system is that the Silicon Valley Bank episode has now exposed the…
Here is Your Stock Market Roadmap for the Rest of 2023 and 2024
As concerns over US regional banks continue to percolate, it is worth noting that the most interesting point about Silicon…
When Will the Recession Start? The Answer May Surprise You
Monetary tightening expectations in the US have ratcheted up again, with the terminal rate now put at 5.09% against the…
Small Business, Not the Bond Market, Will Cause the Next Recession
A counterintuitive in terms of the rising recession talk in recent months has been the ongoing rise in US bank…
The Fed Fudge is Quickly Approaching
Inflation is falling but not as quickly as the Federal Reserve would wish. US headline CPI inflation slowed from 6.0%…