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The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes

There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of the somewhat ballyhooed meeting of…

A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming

The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along with a pronounced slowdown in…

What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?

It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make it slightly less likely that…

Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb

With no sign as yet of a commencement of Federal Reserve easing, the longstanding view of this writer remains that…

Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?

The working assumption that the Chinese have turned temporarily Japanese is borne out by the latest credit data which has…

What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation

There is no doubt that the pain trade in recent months got ever more painful for those equity investors still…

Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next

The oil price has started to rise again this past week after an extended period in the doldrums. The Brent…

Move Over China, India’s Time Has Come

As many global investors have now decided that China is “uninvestable”, it increasingly looks like India’s time has come both…

China Needs a Catalyst, But Where Will it Come From?

The Economist cover syndrome is always a potential contrarian signal as history has demonstrated. And sure enough this writer noted…