US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?
The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as previously discussed…
The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy
The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop. This is fundamentally bad for…
In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve
“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to inflict real pressure on China…
US Colleges Have a $1 Trillion Illiquid Asset Problem
“Liberation Impoverishment day” on 2 April more than lived up to this writer’s expectations with US$7.4trn wiped off the US…
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even…
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case…