Global Strategy
Will Midterms Spell the End of Fed Tightening?
The 10-year Treasury bond has of late broken above the 40-year trend line in place since former Federal Reserve chairman,…
Why India is the Best Growth Story in Asia
In India recently for the first time in nearly three years, this writer saw nothing to question the pre-existing view…
Will the Fed Squeeze the Consumer Until They Break?
The reality of stagflation has certainly been confirmed by the latest US data both as regards inflation and wage growth.…
Big Cap Tech Stocks are Still at Risk
There was an interesting development in the US stock market in April. There were significant net outflows from US domestic…
Can China Afford to Lose Control of COVID?
Attention has returned to the conflict in Ukraine with the launch of the Russian offensive in the Donbas area of…
A World Tour of Interest Rate Policies
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was always likely that US inflation would peak with the March data point due…
Will Alternative Investments Cause a Lehman Moment?
Quantitative tightening is now officially on the agenda. The Fed decided in early May to start shrinking its balance sheet…
An End to the Ukraine War Could Signal the End of Fed Tightening
It has always been likely that the outcome of Russia’s invasion would be binary. Either there would be a reasonably…
What Comes Next for Global Markets
The US bond market continues to react to the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric. The ten-year Treasury bond yield reached…
Stocks Think Inflation has Peaked, Economic Data Says Otherwise
The US yield curve has flattened significantly this year, ever since the release of the Federal Reserve minutes on 5…