Investing
Where to Hide if the US Government Bond Selloff Continues
This writer remains a structural bear on US Treasury bonds and indeed also on G7 government bonds. Yet a tactical…
Inflation Could be the Casualty of OPEC’s Return to Oil Market Dominance
The oil price has corrected in recent days. The Brent crude oil price has declined by 13% since peaking in…
If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market
The key issue for world markets remains when monetary tightening is going to bite in the US economy. If the…
The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes
There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of the somewhat ballyhooed meeting of…
A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming
The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along with a pronounced slowdown in…
What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?
It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make it slightly less likely that…
Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb
With no sign as yet of a commencement of Federal Reserve easing, the longstanding view of this writer remains that…
Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?
The working assumption that the Chinese have turned temporarily Japanese is borne out by the latest credit data which has…
What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation
There is no doubt that the pain trade in recent months got ever more painful for those equity investors still…
Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next
The oil price has started to rise again this past week after an extended period in the doldrums. The Brent…