global strategy
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case…
The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst
The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to…
Understanding Argentina’s Economic Reawakening
As financial markets bet about the policies of the Trump administration, be it DOGE spending cuts or threatened tariffs, it…
Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”
The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech back in January…
Brazil Deep Dive: Is This Market Worth Your Time?
This writer was recently in Brazil for the first time in a year. There has been an incredible change of…
Two Years is Too Long…The AI Conundrum
It can legitimately be described as the stampede from wokeism. Since Donald Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November, this writer…
The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025
US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical…
Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case
One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those…