Interest Rates
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case…
The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst
The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to…
Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table
The US employment data has remained critical for the many hoping for a resumption of Fed easing, be it owners…
The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt
Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC meeting last week saying at…
Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no Paul Volcker with his comments…
With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?
The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that the US monetary cycle is…