Macroeconomics
US-China Relations Are About to Get Worse Before They Get Better
The base case remains a continuing deterioration in US-China relations. That said, a speech on 20 April by US Treasury…
Are US Small Businesses Ok?
The small business sector has become very important to monitor as regards the state of the American economy. The National…
The Age of American Financial Dominance is Over, Here’s What Comes Next
The most amazing statistic this writer has read about the concentrated nature of the first quarter’s US stock market rally…
Where Do Stock Prices Go If We See Fed Easing AND Falling Earnings At the Same Time?
The continuing problem as regards the American banking system is that the Silicon Valley Bank episode has now exposed the…
Here is Your Stock Market Roadmap for the Rest of 2023 and 2024
As concerns over US regional banks continue to percolate, it is worth noting that the most interesting point about Silicon…
Small Business, Not the Bond Market, Will Cause the Next Recession
A counterintuitive in terms of the rising recession talk in recent months has been the ongoing rise in US bank…
The Fed Fudge is Quickly Approaching
Inflation is falling but not as quickly as the Federal Reserve would wish. US headline CPI inflation slowed from 6.0%…
Will the Stars Finally Align for Japanese Stocks?
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has finally departed from office after ten years of pursuing extreme monetary easing. Former…
Canary, Meet Leveraged Loans
It remains remarkable how little US corporate bond spreads have risen so far in this monetary tightening cycle despite 475bp…