Monetary Policy
US Colleges Have a $1 Trillion Illiquid Asset Problem
“Liberation Impoverishment day” on 2 April more than lived up to this writer’s expectations with US$7.4trn wiped off the US…
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even…
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case…
The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst
The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to…
Gold is Your Hedge Against Central Bankers Gone Wild
As G7 central banks are at a point where they can't normalize monetary policy and continue their balance sheet expansion,…