Trump
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even…
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”
The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech back in January…
The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025
US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical…
Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case
One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those…
Is China Weaponizing US Dollar Bonds?
Wall Street has bought to remain focused on the bullish side of Donald Trump’s agenda, namely tax cuts and deregulation,…
Bubble or Bull Market – Trump Will Decide
On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, there has obviously been a lot of tariff-related noise from the President-elect. Still…
Economic Boom? What Does the Data Say?
The consensus of markets prior to the US presidential election was that a Federal Reserve easing cycle has begun and…