Global Strategy
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even…
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models
With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case…
The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst
The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to…
Understanding Argentina’s Economic Reawakening
As financial markets bet about the policies of the Trump administration, be it DOGE spending cuts or threatened tariffs, it…
Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”
The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech back in January…
Brazil Deep Dive: Is This Market Worth Your Time?
This writer was recently in Brazil for the first time in a year. There has been an incredible change of…