Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models

With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case remains that the Federal Reserve will fud... Read More»

The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst

The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to be expected. That said, the base case is tha... Read More»

Understanding Argentina’s Economic Reawakening

As financial markets bet about the policies of the Trump administration, be it DOGE spending cuts or threatened tariffs, it is worth highlighting again the dram... Read More»

Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”

The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech back in January was his statement that he wil... Read More»

Brazil Deep Dive: Is This Market Worth Your Time?

This writer was recently in Brazil for the first time in a year. There has been an incredible change of sentiment since then. At the start of 2024 there was ... Read More»

Two Years is Too Long…The AI Conundrum

It can legitimately be described as the stampede from wokeism. Since Donald Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November, this writer has noticed a change ... Read More»

The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025

US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical sentiment following the elect... Read More»

Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case

One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolve... Read More»

Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?

The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings suggests that further interest rate cuts are no longer guaranteed ... Read More»

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