China Needs America Less Than You Think

Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even if it has not been panicked ... Read More»

A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?

Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late given the growing fears of a US d... Read More»

Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks

The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak at the end of last year ami... Read More»

While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising

The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing a few of the negative data points aga... Read More»

How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?

Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US decision to hold talks directly w... Read More»

Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models

With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case remains that the Federal Reserve will fud... Read More»

The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst

The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to be expected. That said, the base case is tha... Read More»

Understanding Argentina’s Economic Reawakening

As financial markets bet about the policies of the Trump administration, be it DOGE spending cuts or threatened tariffs, it is worth highlighting again the dram... Read More»

Making Sense of Trump’s Worldview – “Spheres of Influence”

The most interesting, and to most people doubtless the most surprising, part of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech back in January was his statement that he wil... Read More»

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