Global Strategy
2019 Market Outlook: The Tightrope of U.S. Earnings
Wall Street remains in corrective mode despite hopes of the normal rally into year-end, with the S&P500 now down 11.6%…
A Truce on Trade Between China and the U.S.
Investors have been intently focused on the outcome of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires on Dec. 1 — specifically the…
Will Private Equity Blow Up in an Economic Downturn?
If there is an area of American finance likely to blow up in any coming downturn, where the dynamic is…
British Brexiteers and Italian Populists Making a Hot Mess of EU Politics
Time spent in London earlier this week allowed this writer to monitor closer at hand what is undoubtedly the biggest…
Pakistan: Well Positioned to Benefit from the US-China Trade War
Investor attention on emerging markets normally focuses for good reason on economic success stories like China and India. But this…
Expect Markets to Rally Thanks to Mid-terms and an Impending China Trade Deal
There is clearly the potential for more of a technical rally in stock markets with the bogey month of October…
The Impact of Middle Eastern Oil on the US Economy
There are all kinds of concerns currently percolating in world financial markets, such as a US-China trade war. But what…
FANG Faces the Existential Threat of Disruption and Regulation
The recent breakdown of the S&P500 has revived the base case triggered by the ‘short vol’ unwind in February. That…
China’s Domestic-Driven Economy Will Insulate it from Trade Warriors’ Attack
It remains obvious that events of late have continued not to move in the direction of the base case here,…
Implications of the US 10-Yr Treasury Bond Breaking Through 37-Year Trend Line
There have recently been some dramatic moves in America’s bond market where the US Treasury bond market broke through a…