Global Strategy
Italy’s Stagnant Economy the Most Likely Trigger to Europe’s Existential Crisis
With the focus on Turkey and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy…
Turkish Turmoil as US Fiscal Easing and Monetary Tightening Continues
The US dollar index has recently broken above the 95 'resistance level'. The index rose to 96.98 on August 15…
US vs China: The Surging Greenback and the Trade War Favour the US
The immediate focus of markets of late has been the resurgent US dollar (see following chart) amid the collapse of…
The US Tax Reform GDP Sugar Rush Coming to an End
The base case here remains that the 2Q18 US GDP will mark the peak of growth in this cycle on…
The Flattening US Yield Curve and the Fed Balance Sheet Unwind
The other day this writer was thinking that it had become time for Donald Trump to comment on Federal Reserve…
Electric Car Hype Sows the Seeds for a Future Inflationary Oil Price Spike
“Oil forecast to hit peak demand by 2036”. Such was the headline in a newspaper article recently (see Financial Times…
Brexit a Sideshow Relative to Populist Eurozone Uprising
Some comments are due on Brexit which, after many months of waffle and prevarication, is finally becoming 'real'. The unholy…
Fed Tightening Cycle Triggers Emerging Markets Debt Dislocation
An interesting contribution to the debate on the impact of Fed balance sheet contraction on emerging markets’ US dollar funding…
US Dollar Strength Usher Emerging Market Credit Tears
Growth remains seemingly benign, most particularly in the US with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicating 3%YoY growth last quarter…
US vs China – Is it ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?
If monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate…