Global Strategy
China, North Korea, Iran… Has Trump Achieved Maximum Winning?
The news flow over the past few weeks has not supported hopes that there is a better chance of a…
Weak Chinese Stock Market Driven by Domestic Deleveraging not Trade War
This year the Chinese stock market has been very weak with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 15% year-to-date, and…
How a Democrat Win in the Midterms Will Affect the Markets
With the tenth anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy just passed, one theme of this writer’s message to investors of late…
Cannabis Legalization in North America and the Economics of the Opioid Crisis
A land grab is now emerging in the area of cannabis investing as legalization momentum gathers pace, resulting in the…
The Strong US Dollar, Buyback Frenzy and Increased Savings
Given Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Federal Reserve policy of late, Fed chairman Jerome Powell made a politically astute speech…
Italy’s Stagnant Economy the Most Likely Trigger to Europe’s Existential Crisis
With the focus on Turkey and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy…
Turkish Turmoil as US Fiscal Easing and Monetary Tightening Continues
The US dollar index has recently broken above the 95 'resistance level'. The index rose to 96.98 on August 15…
US vs China: The Surging Greenback and the Trade War Favour the US
The immediate focus of markets of late has been the resurgent US dollar (see following chart) amid the collapse of…
The US Tax Reform GDP Sugar Rush Coming to an End
The base case here remains that the 2Q18 US GDP will mark the peak of growth in this cycle on…
The Flattening US Yield Curve and the Fed Balance Sheet Unwind
The other day this writer was thinking that it had become time for Donald Trump to comment on Federal Reserve…