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Global Strategy

China is the One Safe Haven for Bond Investors

One recommended trade here for global bond investors has been to sell US Treasury bonds, and indeed all G7 government…

Inflation Expectations Approaching the Point of No Return

The past investment quarter has seen rotation into the cyclical value trade in world stock markets after fund managers finally…

Regulation of Big Tech is Underappreciated by the Market

The view here remains that the Big Tech stocks’ market capitalisation peaked as a percentage of the S&P500 at the…

No Rate Hikes Until 2023 – Or Maybe Not…

The benefit of the doubt continues to be given to the cyclical trade, which also continues to be confirmed by…

The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum

The US bond market sell-off has continued and with it the increased potential for an inflation scare. Still, there is…

Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?

Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations rate and the 10-year breakeven…

The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines

Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day average daily new case count…

Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide

The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view that the vaccine rollout story…

The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First

The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt some form of yield curve…