Inflation
The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025
US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical…
The Underestimated Risk of Deflation in America
If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the commencement of monetary easing in his 23 August speech at Jackson Hole,…
The Language That Could Signal a Fed Pivot
There is no doubt that Wall Street has in the relief rally underway since late June been in an awful…
Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals
The June US CPI data came in well above consensus while the July data, released last week, still shows CPI…
The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum
The US bond market sell-off has continued and with it the increased potential for an inflation scare. Still, there is…
Fed’s License to Overshoot on Inflation
The US Treasury bond market has started to sell-off in recent weeks, in line with the base case here of…
Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher
Barbell Strategy of Cyclical & Growth Stocks The base case remains that cyclical stocks will enjoy renewed outperformance, as they…
Boomers Shafting Millennials & The Inflationary Impulse of COVID-19
The Politics of COVID-19 The politics of the Coronavirus have become ever clearer. Domestically it is evident that Donald Trump…
Could Coronavirus be the Catalyst for Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Merge?
It is my view that cutting interest rates is not appropriate for fighting an epidemic. But, unsurprisingly, this has not…