The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025

US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical sentiment following the elect... Read More»

The Underestimated Risk of Deflation in America

If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the commencement of monetary easing in his 23 August speech at Jackson Hole, more interesting to this writer ... Read More»

The Language That Could Signal a Fed Pivot

There is no doubt that Wall Street has in the relief rally underway since late June been in an awful hurry to price in the peaking out of inflation and the end ... Read More»

Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals

The June US CPI data came in well above consensus while the July data, released last week, still shows CPI and core CPI rising at 5.4% YoY and 4.3% YoY. US CPI... Read More»

The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum

The US bond market sell-off has continued and with it the increased potential for an inflation scare. Still, there is plenty of scope for bonds to sell off mo... Read More»

Fed’s License to Overshoot on Inflation

The US Treasury bond market has started to sell-off in recent weeks, in line with the base case here of a steepening yield curve as a result of a post-lockdown... Read More»

Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher

Barbell Strategy of Cyclical & Growth Stocks The base case remains that cyclical stocks will enjoy renewed outperformance, as they did for a period last q... Read More»

Boomers Shafting Millennials & The Inflationary Impulse of COVID-19

The Politics of COVID-19 The politics of the Coronavirus have become ever clearer. Domestically it is evident that Donald Trump wants to return to normal as so... Read More»

Could Coronavirus be the Catalyst for Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Merge?

It is my view that cutting interest rates is not appropriate for fighting an epidemic. But, unsurprisingly, this has not stopped the Federal Reserve cutt... Read More»