Macro Battleship
The Biggest Inflation Scare Since the 1980’s is Coming
The cyclical rebound in America should continue to surprise on the upside in terms of the pent-up demand potential, a…
The Energy and Bank Stock Rebound Will Continue, Buy the Dip
There has been a bit of a pullback in the cyclical trade with US energy stocks down 11.8% from their…
China is the One Safe Haven for Bond Investors
One recommended trade here for global bond investors has been to sell US Treasury bonds, and indeed all G7 government…
Inflation Expectations Approaching the Point of No Return
The past investment quarter has seen rotation into the cyclical value trade in world stock markets after fund managers finally…
Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?
Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations rate and the 10-year breakeven…
The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines
Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day average daily new case count…
Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide
The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view that the vaccine rollout story…
The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First
The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt some form of yield curve…
Coming to America – Yield Curve Control
This column has tended to focus primarily on monetary policy as it relates to the trend in financial markets. But…