Macro Battleship
Inflation Expectations Approaching the Point of No Return
The past investment quarter has seen rotation into the cyclical value trade in world stock markets after fund managers finally…
Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?
Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations rate and the 10-year breakeven…
The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines
Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day average daily new case count…
Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide
The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view that the vaccine rollout story…
The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First
The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt some form of yield curve…
Coming to America – Yield Curve Control
This column has tended to focus primarily on monetary policy as it relates to the trend in financial markets. But…
Asia Will Outperform in a World of Weak Dollars and Accelerating Inflation
The view here remains that the key issue facing investors in 2021 is the Federal Reserve’s policy response coming out…
India is Starting a Cyclical Recovery – Buy Indian Stocks
As good a stock market investment story in Asia as any is India. The Indian economy is almost back to…
The “Passive Put” and Tesla’s Bitcoin Wildcard
The advice here remains to stick with the “back to normal” trade despite the scare over the mutating virus in…