Macro Battleship
An Emboldening Trump is a Risk to Future Stock Gains
The US stock market continues to celebrate the AI capex trade while ignoring the tariff noise based on the TACO…
The Stock Market is Eating The Economy
The US stock market remains extremely resilient in the face of the rise in tariffs. Indeed, the S&P 500 is…
America’s Deteriorating Finances and Why You Shouldn’t Own the Dollar
One topic highlighted in this column of late has been the dramatic deterioration in America’s net international investment position which…
Has Passive Investing Gone Too Far?
This writer was interested to read of late about research on the distorting impact of passive investing, most particularly in…
US Colleges Have a $1 Trillion Illiquid Asset Problem
“Liberation Impoverishment day” on 2 April more than lived up to this writer’s expectations with US$7.4trn wiped off the US…
China Needs America Less Than You Think
Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even…
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…