Macroeconomics
Understanding China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign
China remains the best example of a country which has not succumbed to the pressure tactics so effectively deployed against…
The Recession That Never Was
The base case remains for a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (i.e. this Wednesday) even though…
An Exploration of Trump’s View on Crypto, Short Term Treasuries and Yield Curve Control
“Trump and hubris” is a phrase that has come to mind of late. It in part refers to the American…
An Emboldening Trump is a Risk to Future Stock Gains
The US stock market continues to celebrate the AI capex trade while ignoring the tariff noise based on the TACO…
The Stock Market is Eating The Economy
The US stock market remains extremely resilient in the face of the rise in tariffs. Indeed, the S&P 500 is…
America’s Deteriorating Finances and Why You Shouldn’t Own the Dollar
One topic highlighted in this column of late has been the dramatic deterioration in America’s net international investment position which…
Two Years is Too Long…The AI Conundrum
It can legitimately be described as the stampede from wokeism. Since Donald Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November, this writer…
The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025
US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical…
Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case
One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those…