Macroeconomics
Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?
Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations rate and the 10-year breakeven…
The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines
Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day average daily new case count…
Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide
The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view that the vaccine rollout story…
The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First
The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt some form of yield curve…
Coming to America – Yield Curve Control
This column has tended to focus primarily on monetary policy as it relates to the trend in financial markets. But…
Asia Will Outperform in a World of Weak Dollars and Accelerating Inflation
The view here remains that the key issue facing investors in 2021 is the Federal Reserve’s policy response coming out…
The “Passive Put” and Tesla’s Bitcoin Wildcard
The advice here remains to stick with the “back to normal” trade despite the scare over the mutating virus in…
China Still a Manufacturing Powerhouse. Buy the RMB, Sell the Dollar.
The US Dollar Index has over the past week fallen to its lowest level since April 2018. US Dollar Index…
Southern European Stocks Looking Juicy Driven by Gov’t Bond Buying
That a mass roll-out of vaccines is now on the horizon, on a six-month view, remains a reason to stay…