Macroeconomics
Betting on Lower Interest Rates?
Federal Reserve statements and press conferences are probably more over analysed and commented upon than any other area of the…
Tracking Three Risks That Could Sink Markets: Oil, Geopolitics and Private Debt
It remains the case that the last thing the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve want to see is a…
Is Japan’s Stock Party Over, or Is the Best Yet to Come?
“Government may declare official end of deflation”. This was a frontpage headline in the Japan Times last quarter. This, and…
Is China Investable Yet?
The Chinese economy remains the world’s second largest, with a GDP of US$18tn, so it is hard to ignore even…
Positioning for More Rate Hikes No Longer Looks Crazy
Sometimes it is important to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader, not to be rigidly stuck to any…
Big Changes are Underfoot in Eurozone Politics
For understandable reasons, media focus remains primarily on US politics with a presidential election due to be held in November…
Is Argentina’s Economic Experiment Working?
Argentina’s recently elected President Javier Milei made headlines when he made a speech at Davos in January accusing Western leaders…
What Will it Take to Turn China Around?
The concerns about intensifying deflationary momentum continue to build in China with the release of the latest data, be it…
The Real Motivation Behind Fed Rate Cuts
This writer focused last week on the fact that the liquidity contraction is only now really beginning to bite based…