Macroeconomics
The US Economy is Strong…But for How Much Longer?
The base case remains that the US is heading into a downturn in 2024 as signaled by the collapse in…
The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt
Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC meeting last week saying at…
Investors Left Hong Kong Real Estate for Dead, Should You?
If sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains super depressed, the same also applies to domestic Hong Kong stocks. It remains incredible…
What Do Japanese Stocks and US Small Business Have in Common?
This writer’s main candidates for the areas to blow up if there is a recession in the US as a…
Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no Paul Volcker with his comments…
With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren’t We in a Recession Already?
The action in Big Tech stocks has continued to be amazingly resilient, helped by the AI story, positive cash flow…
Move Over China, Here Comes India
From a market standpoint, as opposed to a geopolitical one, there has so far been remarkably little fallout from recent…
With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?
The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that the US monetary cycle is…
Move Over Core Inflation, Headline is All that Matters Now
Amidst the never ending focus on Federal Reserve policy there remains the remarkably undiscussed issue of exactly which measure of…