Macroeconomics
India Stocks – Buy the Dip
This writer arrived in Delhi of late to see the Indian capital lit up like a wedding cake in the…
A Treasury Maturity Wall is Coming, Is Your Portfolio Ready?
Geopolitics is back driving the newsflow with events in the Middle East. Meanwhile, there is also the emerging force of…
Will Xi Allow the US Style Housing Bailout China Desperately Needs?
Higher for longer has undoubtedly been the consensus among investors in recent months. Money markets have repriced when rate cuts…
Where to Hide if the US Government Bond Selloff Continues
This writer remains a structural bear on US Treasury bonds and indeed also on G7 government bonds. Yet a tactical…
Inflation Could be the Casualty of OPEC’s Return to Oil Market Dominance
The oil price has corrected in recent days. The Brent crude oil price has declined by 13% since peaking in…
If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market
The key issue for world markets remains when monetary tightening is going to bite in the US economy. If the…
The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes
There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of the somewhat ballyhooed meeting of…
A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming
The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along with a pronounced slowdown in…
What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?
It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make it slightly less likely that…