US Dollar
A Catchup on Japan: Will Outperformance vs the US Continue?
Money markets are still looking for another rate hike in Japan, but rate hike expectations have declined significantly of late…
Mar-A-Lago Accord Deep Dive: Implications and Risks
The base case here remains that US stock market capitalisation, relative to world stock market capitalisation, made an all-time peak…
While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising
The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing…
How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?
Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US…
Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals
The June US CPI data came in well above consensus while the July data, released last week, still shows CPI…
Fed’s License to Overshoot on Inflation
The US Treasury bond market has started to sell-off in recent weeks, in line with the base case here of…
Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher
Barbell Strategy of Cyclical & Growth Stocks The base case remains that cyclical stocks will enjoy renewed outperformance, as they…
FANG Faces the Existential Threat of Disruption and Regulation
The recent breakdown of the S&P500 has revived the base case triggered by the ‘short vol’ unwind in February. That…
The Strong US Dollar, Buyback Frenzy and Increased Savings
Given Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Federal Reserve policy of late, Fed chairman Jerome Powell made a politically astute speech…