Global Strategy
Electric Car Hype Sows the Seeds for a Future Inflationary Oil Price Spike
“Oil forecast to hit peak demand by 2036”. Such was the headline in a newspaper article recently (see Financial Times…
Brexit a Sideshow Relative to Populist Eurozone Uprising
Some comments are due on Brexit which, after many months of waffle and prevarication, is finally becoming 'real'. The unholy…
Fed Tightening Cycle Triggers Emerging Markets Debt Dislocation
An interesting contribution to the debate on the impact of Fed balance sheet contraction on emerging markets’ US dollar funding…
US Dollar Strength Usher Emerging Market Credit Tears
Growth remains seemingly benign, most particularly in the US with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicating 3%YoY growth last quarter…
US vs China – Is it ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?
If monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate…
Trade War! Making Sense of Trump’s Good Cop / Bad Cop Theatre
Ongoing US monetary tightening is not the only risk facing Wall Street-corrected world stock markets. The past few weeks have…
The Great China Deleverage: Economy Ain’t Broke and Stocks OK
There remains a lot of noise about incipient trade wars and the like between the US and China. But, interestingly,…
Italian Politics: The Calm Before the Next Storm
Europe remains a potential source of angst for financial markets in the form of another existential crisis for the Eurozone.…
Teflon Don – Republican Midterm Victory the Base Case
If the American president is annoying people 'overseas' with tariff increases and the like, at home the story is a…
US Sanctions on Iran: The Unraveling of Pax Americana
Amid current news headlines about North Korea and related nuclear issues, it is important not to ignore the potential schism…