Global Strategy
US Dollar Strength Usher Emerging Market Credit Tears
Growth remains seemingly benign, most particularly in the US with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicating 3%YoY growth last quarter…
US vs China – Is it ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?
If monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate…
Trade War! Making Sense of Trump’s Good Cop / Bad Cop Theatre
Ongoing US monetary tightening is not the only risk facing Wall Street-corrected world stock markets. The past few weeks have…
The Great China Deleverage: Economy Ain’t Broke and Stocks OK
There remains a lot of noise about incipient trade wars and the like between the US and China. But, interestingly,…
Italian Politics: The Calm Before the Next Storm
Europe remains a potential source of angst for financial markets in the form of another existential crisis for the Eurozone.…
Teflon Don – Republican Midterm Victory the Base Case
If the American president is annoying people 'overseas' with tariff increases and the like, at home the story is a…
US Sanctions on Iran: The Unraveling of Pax Americana
Amid current news headlines about North Korea and related nuclear issues, it is important not to ignore the potential schism…
Italy’s Populist Uprising Could Trigger Another Eurozone Crisis
Italian Politics - A Perpetual State of Turmoil The focus has returned to Italian politics in recent weeks and the…
Strong Oil Prices Stoking the US Inflation Narrative
The latest inflation data has seen the Fed’s favourite inflation measure reach the 2% target. Headline PCE inflation and core…
India Rising: Charting a Path of Development Through Digitalization
India has long been this writer’s favourite stock market in Asia. It also has a feature unique in emerging markets:…