FANG Faces the Existential Threat of Disruption and Regulation

The recent breakdown of the S&P500 has revived the base case triggered by the ‘short vol’ unwind in February. That is that the S&P500 has reached a peak... Read More»

China’s Domestic-Driven Economy Will Insulate it from Trade Warriors’ Attack

It remains obvious that events of late have continued not to move in the direction of the base case here, namely that Donald Trump will, sooner or later, tu... Read More»

Implications of the US 10-Yr Treasury Bond Breaking Through 37-Year Trend Line

There have recently been some dramatic moves in America’s bond market where the US Treasury bond market broke through a 37-year trend line on the upside in ... Read More»

China, North Korea, Iran… Has Trump Achieved Maximum Winning?

The news flow over the past few weeks has not supported hopes that there is a better chance of a trade deal with China than currently envisaged by markets. ... Read More»

Weak Chinese Stock Market Driven by Domestic Deleveraging not Trade War

This year the Chinese stock market has been very weak with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 15% year-to-date, and by 20% at the bottom last month (... Read More»

How a Democrat Win in the Midterms Will Affect the Markets

With the tenth anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy just passed, one theme of this writer’s message to investors of late has been that politics has now beco... Read More»

Cannabis Legalization in North America and the Economics of the Opioid Crisis

A land grab is now emerging in the area of cannabis investing as legalization momentum gathers pace, resulting in the opportunity for corporates to invest i... Read More»

The Strong US Dollar, Buyback Frenzy and Increased Savings

Given Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Federal Reserve policy of late, Fed chairman Jerome Powell made a politically astute speech at Jackson Hole in late... Read More»

Italy’s Stagnant Economy the Most Likely Trigger to Europe’s Existential Crisis

With the focus on Turkey and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy to forget about the Eurozone. Yet the current I... Read More»

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