Tariffs
Is More Pain to Come for Indian Stocks From Trump’s 50% Export Tariffs?
27 August was the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday in India. But it was not a happy day in the country in…
The Real Sticking Point in China-US Negotiations
The path is set for another Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting on Wednesday following the latest inflation data…
What is the Right Tariff Rate for China?
The IMF-World Bank Spring meeting talking shop in Washington in late April served a highly useful function. It provided the…
Why The Time Has Come to Overweight International Stocks
Whatever the exact trigger, the extraordinarily recent sharp appreciation of Taiwan’s currency, the NT dollar, is perhaps the clearest signal…
US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?
The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as previously discussed…
The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy
The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop. This is fundamentally bad for…
In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve
“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to inflict real pressure on China…
Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case
One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those…
Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?
The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings suggests that further interest rate…