Why The Time Has Come to Overweight International Stocks

Whatever the exact trigger, the extraordinarily recent sharp appreciation of Taiwan’s currency, the NT dollar, is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the US do... Read More»

US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?

The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as previously discussed here (see In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ac... Read More»

The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy

The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop. This is fundamentally bad for all US financial assets, particularly Trea... Read More»

In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve

“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to inflict real pressure on China and push them to the negotiating table with ... Read More»

Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case

One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolve... Read More»

Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?

The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings suggests that further interest rate cuts are no longer guaranteed ... Read More»

More Tariffs Means More Monetary Easing

It may be a little ridiculous. But Donald Trump’s surprise decision, or threat, to impose a new round of tariffs on China at the start of September has subs... Read More»

US vs China – Is it ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?

If monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines. The Donald's De... Read More»

GRIZZLE REEL: Solar Flare-ups, AI Fake Porn, No More Water, Media Fairy Dust

TARIFFS: Solar Panel Flare-ups China is the world's largest producer of solar cells and lithium batteries. The big unpublicized truth about clean technolo... Read More»