Is More Pain to Come for Indian Stocks From Trump’s 50% Export Tariffs?

27 August was the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday in India. But it was not a happy day in the country in the specific sense that the Trump administration went ahead... Read More»

The Real Sticking Point in China-US Negotiations

The path is set for another Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting on Wednesday following the latest inflation data even though reported inflation is still well ab... Read More»

What is the Right Tariff Rate for China?

The IMF-World Bank Spring meeting talking shop in Washington in late April served a highly useful function. It provided the venue for Treasury Secretary Scot... Read More»

Why The Time Has Come to Overweight International Stocks

Whatever the exact trigger, the extraordinarily recent sharp appreciation of Taiwan’s currency, the NT dollar, is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the US do... Read More»

US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?

The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as previously discussed here (see In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ac... Read More»

The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy

The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop. This is fundamentally bad for all US financial assets, particularly Trea... Read More»

In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve

“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to inflict real pressure on China and push them to the negotiating table with ... Read More»

Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case

One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolve... Read More»

Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?

The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings suggests that further interest rate cuts are no longer guaranteed ... Read More»