US vs China: The Surging Greenback and the Trade War Favour the US

The immediate focus of markets of late has been the resurgent US dollar (see following chart) amid the collapse of the Turkish currency, down 23% against th... Read More»

The US Tax Reform GDP Sugar Rush Coming to an End

The base case here remains that the 2Q18 US GDP will mark the peak of growth in this cycle on the 'sugar rush' of Donald Trump’s tax reform. Still, the l... Read More»

The Flattening US Yield Curve and the Fed Balance Sheet Unwind

The other day this writer was thinking that it had become time for Donald Trump to comment on Federal Reserve policy when the news reports appeared on the remar... Read More»

Electric Car Hype Sows the Seeds for a Future Inflationary Oil Price Spike

“Oil forecast to hit peak demand by 2036”. Such was the headline in a newspaper article recently (see Financial Times article: “Oil forecast to hit peak demand ... Read More»

Brexit a Sideshow Relative to Populist Eurozone Uprising

Some comments are due on Brexit which, after many months of waffle and prevarication, is finally becoming 'real'. The unholy mess that former British Prime M... Read More»

Fed Tightening Cycle Triggers Emerging Markets Debt Dislocation

An interesting contribution to the debate on the impact of Fed balance sheet contraction on emerging markets’ US dollar funding came early last month in the for... Read More»

US Dollar Strength Usher Emerging Market Credit Tears

Growth remains seemingly benign, most particularly in the US with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicating 3%YoY growth last quarter (see following chart).... Read More»

US vs China – Is it ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?

If monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines. The Donald's De... Read More»

Trade War! Making Sense of Trump’s Good Cop / Bad Cop Theatre

Ongoing US monetary tightening is not the only risk facing Wall Street-corrected world stock markets. The past few weeks have seen renewed negative focus on... Read More»

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