Two Years is Too Long…The AI Conundrum

It can legitimately be described as the stampede from wokeism. Since Donald Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November, this writer has noticed a change ... Read More»

The Two Big Risks for Stocks in 2025

US inflation data has become important again given Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot at the December meeting and the more pro-cyclical sentiment following the elect... Read More»

Why The Failure of DOGE is Our Base Case

One issue facing investors this year is the self-evident contradictory nature of President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolve... Read More»

Have Tariffs Taken Rate Cuts Off the Table for 2025?

The relatively hawkish message sent by Jerome Powell at the last two Federal Reserve meetings suggests that further interest rate cuts are no longer guaranteed ... Read More»

Is China Weaponizing US Dollar Bonds?

Wall Street has bought to remain focused on the bullish side of Donald Trump’s agenda, namely tax cuts and deregulation, while downplaying the tariff threat whe... Read More»

Bubble or Bull Market – Trump Will Decide

On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, there has obviously been a lot of tariff-related noise from the President-elect. Still this writer’s base case rem... Read More»

Back from El Salvador, We are Very Bullish Bitcoin in 2025

The price of Bitcoin has consolidated of late after the 62% price surge triggered by Donald Trump’s election and the resulting expectation of a more crypto frie... Read More»

Will February 23rd Mark the Day Europe Becomes Investable?

All the evidence is that Donald Trump is much more prepared for his second term in the White House than was the case following his 2016 victory, which, by all a... Read More»

The Research & Quant 2025 Market Outlook

It may just turn out to be the case that the most important Federal Reserve meeting this year happened just before the end of the year. The relatively hawkis... Read More»

Macroeconomics