If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market

The key issue for world markets remains when monetary tightening is going to bite in the US economy. If the downturn in M2 growth in the recent past remains ... Read More»

The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes

There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of the somewhat ballyhooed meeting of the BRICS countries in Joh... Read More»

A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming

The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along with a pronounced slowdown in inflation, with the key question remaining the lags ... Read More»

What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?

It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make it slightly less likely that the Fed will tighten by another 25bp at the next FOMC meet... Read More»

Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb

With no sign as yet of a commencement of Federal Reserve easing, the longstanding view of this writer remains that the most likely casualty of the current monet... Read More»

Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?

The working assumption that the Chinese have turned temporarily Japanese is borne out by the latest credit data which has increased concerns that the authoritie... Read More»

What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation

There is no doubt that the pain trade in recent months got ever more painful for those equity investors still defensively positioned as confidence has grown tha... Read More»

Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next

The oil price has started to rise again this past week after an extended period in the doldrums. The Brent crude oil price has risen by 6.7% since 20 July an... Read More»

Move Over China, India’s Time Has Come

As many global investors have now decided that China is “uninvestable”, it increasingly looks like India’s time has come both as a stock market and as an econom... Read More»

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