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    Market Strategy

    with Chris Wood

    Why India Will Be The Best Emerging Market Over the Next 10 Years

    Why India Will Be The Best Emerging Market Over the Next 10 Years

    With everybody focused on the US presidential election, this is a good time to look...
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    Evaluating World Geopolitics and a Trump Victory

    Evaluating World Geopolitics and a Trump Victory

    On the US presidential election, the ElectionBettingOdds.com website now shows 61.4% odds of a Trump...
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    Is Labor Hoarding Masking Job Market Weakness?

    Is Labor Hoarding Masking Job Market Weakness?

    US employment data remains key to stress-test the extent of Fed easing expectations currently priced...
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    The Underestimated Risk of Deflation in America

    The Underestimated Risk of Deflation in America

    If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the commencement of monetary easing in his 23...
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    Handicapping The Chances of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

    Handicapping The Chances of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

    Donald Trump made a speech at the annual Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in late...
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    The Asset Class That Could Stoke the Flames of a Stock Market Selloff

    The Asset Class That Could Stoke the Flames of a Stock Market Selloff

    It is a reality of financial markets that market declines are made worse by forced...
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    Is More Carry Trade Volatility In Store for Markets?

    Is More Carry Trade Volatility In Store for Markets?

    Financial markets found out about the potential for a yen carry trade unwind last month...
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    The Growing Risk of The Treasury’s Addiction to Short Term Debt

    The Growing Risk of The Treasury’s Addiction to Short Term Debt

    There was an interesting study published recently that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen felt obligated...
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    Gold and Bitcoin Tactical Update

    Gold and Bitcoin Tactical Update

    This writer still believes in Bitcoin. Still it is worth noting that the recent extended...
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    India or America – Where Should Your Money Go Next?

    India or America – Where Should Your Money Go Next?

    “Donald Trumps Death” was the cleverly written headline in the Times of India on 15...
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    Why Taiwan Should be in Your Portfolio

    Why Taiwan Should be in Your Portfolio

    The chart below shows that the Nvidia share price and Taiwan’s outperformance relative to the...
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    Don’t be Fooled, The Gov’t Bond Bear Market Marches On

    Don’t be Fooled, The Gov’t Bond Bear Market Marches On

    The announcement by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in late June that it was raising...
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    Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table

    Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table

    The US employment data has remained critical for the many hoping for a resumption of...
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    All the Reasons For and Against a Fed Rate Cut in September

    All the Reasons For and Against a Fed Rate Cut in September

    The hopes for pre-election Federal Reserve easing have increased since the latest employment and inflation...
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    When Will Local Buying Drive Japanese Stocks to New Highs?

    When Will Local Buying Drive Japanese Stocks to New Highs?

    The pressure on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to rise, in terms of...
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    The Chinese Property Crash is Heating Up – When Will the Bounce Come?

    The Chinese Property Crash is Heating Up – When Will the Bounce Come?

    The pace of property easing in China accelerated last quarter to its most intense level...
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    Treasury Yields are Falling But Don’t Be Fooled

    Treasury Yields are Falling But Don’t Be Fooled

    The Treasury bond market has been rallying of late on softer US data. This can...
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    How Could Geopolitics Influence The Election?

    How Could Geopolitics Influence The Election?

    Financial media continues to focus on such matters as Fed policy and the endless chatter...
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    Breaking Down the Popularity and Risks of Private Debt

    Breaking Down the Popularity and Risks of Private Debt

    Private credit is the booming asset class, an asset class which has done a brilliant...
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    What a “No Landing” Means for Your Portfolio

    What a “No Landing” Means for Your Portfolio

    It is important in observing markets to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader,...
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    Are Gold Prices Being Manipulated?

    Are Gold Prices Being Manipulated?

    An old contact told this writer recently of something he was not aware of. That...
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    Betting on Lower Interest Rates?

    Betting on Lower Interest Rates?

    Federal Reserve statements and press conferences are probably more over analysed and commented upon than...
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    Tracking Three Risks That Could Sink Markets: Oil, Geopolitics and Private Debt

    Tracking Three Risks That Could Sink Markets: Oil, Geopolitics and Private Debt

    It remains the case that the last thing the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve...
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    Is Japan’s Stock Party Over, or Is the Best Yet to Come?

    Is Japan’s Stock Party Over, or Is the Best Yet to Come?

    “Government may declare official end of deflation”. This was a frontpage headline in the Japan...
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    Is China Investable Yet?

    Is China Investable Yet?

    The Chinese economy remains the world’s second largest, with a GDP of US$18tn, so it...
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    Positioning for More Rate Hikes No Longer Looks Crazy

    Positioning for More Rate Hikes No Longer Looks Crazy

    Sometimes it is important to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader, not to...
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    Big Changes are Underfoot in Eurozone Politics

    Big Changes are Underfoot in Eurozone Politics

    For understandable reasons, media focus remains primarily on US politics with a presidential election due...
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    Is Argentina’s Economic Experiment Working?

    Is Argentina’s Economic Experiment Working?

    Argentina’s recently elected President Javier Milei made headlines when he made a speech at Davos...
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    What Will it Take to Turn China Around?

    What Will it Take to Turn China Around?

    The concerns about intensifying deflationary momentum continue to build in China with the release of...
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    The Real Motivation Behind Fed Rate Cuts

    The Real Motivation Behind Fed Rate Cuts

    This writer focused last week on the fact that the liquidity contraction is only now...
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    The US Economy is Strong…But for How Much Longer?

    The US Economy is Strong…But for How Much Longer?

    The base case remains that the US is heading into a downturn in 2024 as...
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    The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt

    The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt

    Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC...
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    Investors Left Hong Kong Real Estate for Dead, Should You?

    Investors Left Hong Kong Real Estate for Dead, Should You?

    If sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains super depressed, the same also applies to domestic Hong...
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    What Do Japanese Stocks and US Small Business Have in Common?

    What Do Japanese Stocks and US Small Business Have in Common?

    This writer’s main candidates for the areas to blow up if there is a recession...
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    Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance

    Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance

    Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no...
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    With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren’t We in a Recession Already?

    With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren’t We in a Recession Already?

    The action in Big Tech stocks has continued to be amazingly resilient, helped by the...
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    Move Over China, Here Comes India

    Move Over China, Here Comes India

    From a market standpoint, as opposed to a geopolitical one, there has so far been...
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    With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?

    With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?

    The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that...
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    Move Over Core Inflation, Headline is All that Matters Now

    Move Over Core Inflation, Headline is All that Matters Now

    Amidst the never ending focus on Federal Reserve policy there remains the remarkably undiscussed issue...
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    India Stocks – Buy the Dip

    India Stocks – Buy the Dip

    This writer arrived in Delhi of late to see the Indian capital lit up like...
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    America’s Trade Policy Hypocrisy

    America’s Trade Policy Hypocrisy

    The so-called Global South is increasingly wary of what it views as the double standards...
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    A Treasury Maturity Wall is Coming, Is Your Portfolio Ready?

    A Treasury Maturity Wall is Coming, Is Your Portfolio Ready?

    Geopolitics is back driving the newsflow with events in the Middle East. Meanwhile, there is...
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    Will Xi Allow the US Style Housing Bailout China Desperately Needs?

    Will Xi Allow the US Style Housing Bailout China Desperately Needs?

    Higher for longer has undoubtedly been the consensus among investors in recent months. Money markets...
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    Where to Hide if the US Government Bond Selloff Continues

    Where to Hide if the US Government Bond Selloff Continues

    This writer remains a structural bear on US Treasury bonds and indeed also on G7...
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    Inflation Could be the Casualty of OPEC’s Return to Oil Market Dominance

    Inflation Could be the Casualty of OPEC’s Return to Oil Market Dominance

    The oil price has corrected in recent days. The Brent crude oil price has declined...
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    If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market

    If the Japanese Bond Yield Hits 1%, it Could Shake the US Treasury Market

    The key issue for world markets remains when monetary tightening is going to bite in...
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    The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes

    The World is Splitting into Two Parallel Economies Before our Very Eyes

    There have been some interesting geopolitical trends of late. For example, the chief outcome of...
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    A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming

    A Pronounced Slowdown in Inflation is Coming

    The base case here remains that a downturn in the US economy is coming, along...
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    What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?

    What Data Will Trigger the Interest Rate Pivot Markets Have Been Waiting For?

    It is still a close call. But the latest US CPI and employment data make...
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    Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb

    Private Debt – a Ticking Time Bomb

    With no sign as yet of a commencement of Federal Reserve easing, the longstanding view...
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    Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?

    Is China Experiencing a Lehman Brothers Moment?

    The working assumption that the Chinese have turned temporarily Japanese is borne out by the...
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    What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation

    What You Should Own if The Fed Cares More About Jobs Than Inflation

    There is no doubt that the pain trade in recent months got ever more painful...
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    Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next

    Energy Prices are a Key Swing Factor for Where Inflation Goes Next

    The oil price has started to rise again this past week after an extended period...
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    Move Over China, India’s Time Has Come

    Move Over China, India’s Time Has Come

    As many global investors have now decided that China is “uninvestable”, it increasingly looks like...
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    China Needs a Catalyst, But Where Will it Come From?

    China Needs a Catalyst, But Where Will it Come From?

    The Economist cover syndrome is always a potential contrarian signal as history has demonstrated. And...
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    Key Takeaways From My Trip to Mini-Davos

    Key Takeaways From My Trip to Mini-Davos

    Moving away from the financial markets, this writer attended, of late, two starkly different conferences...
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    Low Inflation or Jobs, Which Will Jerome Powell Choose?

    Low Inflation or Jobs, Which Will Jerome Powell Choose?

    The recent regional bank jitters are a reminder that deposit flows out of US banks...
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    The AI Boom Won’t Save All Tech Stocks

    The AI Boom Won’t Save All Tech Stocks

    The world of tech has a new killer app and history shows that killer apps...
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    US-China Relations Are About to Get Worse Before They Get Better

    US-China Relations Are About to Get Worse Before They Get Better

    The base case remains a continuing deterioration in US-China relations. That said, a speech on...
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    Are US Small Businesses Ok?

    Are US Small Businesses Ok?

    The small business sector has become very important to monitor as regards the state of...
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    The Age of American Financial Dominance is Over, Here’s What Comes Next

    The Age of American Financial Dominance is Over, Here’s What Comes Next

    The most amazing statistic this writer has read about the concentrated nature of the first...
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    Where Do Stock Prices Go If We See Fed Easing AND Falling Earnings At the Same Time?

    Where Do Stock Prices Go If We See Fed Easing AND Falling Earnings At the Same Time?

    The continuing problem as regards the American banking system is that the Silicon Valley Bank...
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    Here is Your Stock Market Roadmap for the Rest of 2023 and 2024

    Here is Your Stock Market Roadmap for the Rest of 2023 and 2024

    As concerns over US regional banks continue to percolate, it is worth noting that the...
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    When Will the Recession Start? The Answer May Surprise You

    When Will the Recession Start? The Answer May Surprise You

    Monetary tightening expectations in the US have ratcheted up again, with the terminal rate now...
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    Small Business, Not the Bond Market, Will Cause the Next Recession

    Small Business, Not the Bond Market, Will Cause the Next Recession

    A counterintuitive in terms of the rising recession talk in recent months has been the...
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    The Fed Fudge is Quickly Approaching

    The Fed Fudge is Quickly Approaching

    Inflation is falling but not as quickly as the Federal Reserve would wish. US headline...
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    Will the Stars Finally Align for Japanese Stocks?

    Will the Stars Finally Align for Japanese Stocks?

    Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has finally departed from office after ten years of...
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    Canary, Meet Leveraged Loans

    Canary, Meet Leveraged Loans

    It remains remarkable how little US corporate bond spreads have risen so far in this...
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    Gold is Back, Next Stop $6,000?

    Gold is Back, Next Stop $6,000?

    The price of gold bullion has bounced back in recent days amidst Silicon Valley Bank-related...
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    As Global Trade Fractures, Inflation will Rise

    As Global Trade Fractures, Inflation will Rise

    It has, of late, become increasingly relevant to talk less about the retreat from globalization...
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    Is a Consumer Revolt at Hand?

    Is a Consumer Revolt at Hand?

    A counterintuitive development in recent months, in the context of recession concerns in America, has...
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    The Consumer is Almost Tapped Out, What Comes Next?

    The Consumer is Almost Tapped Out, What Comes Next?

    This year began with growing optimism that emerging markets can decouple in a year which...
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    Beware The Passive ETF Unwind

    Beware The Passive ETF Unwind

    China’s abrupt but welcome Covid U-turn creates the best chance in many years for Asia...
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    The Yen Rally is Running on Borrowed Time

    The Yen Rally is Running on Borrowed Time

    The interesting point about Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s adjustment of yield curve control...
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    Why Inflation Could Overshoot to the Downside in 2023

    Why Inflation Could Overshoot to the Downside in 2023

    The chart below highlights why investors have growing confidence that US inflation has peaked, which...
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    Why 2% Inflation is Right Around the Corner

    Why 2% Inflation is Right Around the Corner

    China has gone from closet Covid easing over the Christmas holiday to a full-scale U-turn...
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    Is the Chinese Stock Market Off to the Races?

    Is the Chinese Stock Market Off to the Races?

    It has been a long time coming, but China has finally signaled the importance of...
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    China is Entering a New Era

    China is Entering a New Era

    China will continue to be run primarily around politics not economics. This is the chief...
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    Can Anything Kill The Energy Bull Market?

    Can Anything Kill The Energy Bull Market?

    There is no doubt that energy is a core part of the fractious political debate...
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    The Shadow Semiconductor Wars Explained

    The Shadow Semiconductor Wars Explained

    If the Ukraine situation is one kind of warfare, even though Russian President Vladimir Putin...
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    The S&P 500 Earnings Recession is Already Here, Will it Get Worse?

    The S&P 500 Earnings Recession is Already Here, Will it Get Worse?

    The base effect worked for investors with last week’s October US CPI data. Remember, the...
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    Is a Dramatic Market Switch from Energy to Metals Possible?

    Is a Dramatic Market Switch from Energy to Metals Possible?

    This has so far been an annus horribilis for gold mining stocks with gold stocks...
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    The Ugly Truth about Inflation

    The Ugly Truth about Inflation

    The US CPI report remains by far the most important monthly data point globally, as...
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    Listen to This Fed Governor for Signs of a Fed Pivot

    Listen to This Fed Governor for Signs of a Fed Pivot

    The “situation” remains  the inverse of Goldilocks for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets with the...
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    The Best Global Equity Story is India

    The Best Global Equity Story is India

    With world markets so jittery, it is worth focusing again on what is probably the...
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    Can Anything Stop China’s Property Meltdown?

    Can Anything Stop China’s Property Meltdown?

    Pushing on a string as regards the mainland Chinese economy was the theme discussed here...
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    Have Supply Shortages Made Oil Stocks Recession Proof?

    Have Supply Shortages Made Oil Stocks Recession Proof?

    A constructive view is maintained on energy despite concerns on demand destruction and related recession...
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    Europe’s Long Hailed Fiscal Union is Finally Upon Us

    Europe’s Long Hailed Fiscal Union is Finally Upon Us

    There is growing potential for market focus to switch back to the Eurozone in coming...
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    The Language That Could Signal a Fed Pivot

    The Language That Could Signal a Fed Pivot

    There is no doubt that Wall Street has in the relief rally underway since late...
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    Pushing on a String: China’s Consumer Demand Problem

    Pushing on a String: China’s Consumer Demand Problem

    Pushing on a string is a term this writer became very familiar with employing when...
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    Are Stocks Ready for the August Inflation Reading?

    Are Stocks Ready for the August Inflation Reading?

    The obvious source of relief for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets, save for a Fed...
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    Is an End in Sight for China’s COVID Zero Policy?

    Is an End in Sight for China’s COVID Zero Policy?

    The current investment quarter has been marked by financial markets acting like talk of a...
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    The Yen is on the Ropes, is Yield Curve Control Next?

    The Yen is on the Ropes, is Yield Curve Control Next?

    This writer has continued to take a positive view on energy stocks. That said, energy...
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    Are Leveraged Loans This Cycles Ticking Time Bomb?

    Are Leveraged Loans This Cycles Ticking Time Bomb?

    The longer monetary tightening proceeds the more likely it is to trigger real problems in...
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    Is a Ukraine Compromise Imminent?

    Is a Ukraine Compromise Imminent?

     If intensifying US monetary tightening should be theoretically bullish for Treasury bonds because it hits...
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    What Data Could Cause a Fed Pivot on Rates?

    What Data Could Cause a Fed Pivot on Rates?

    The outlook remains the inverse of Goldilocks. The minimum decline investors should expect, if the...
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    Will Midterms Spell the End of Fed Tightening?

    Will Midterms Spell the End of Fed Tightening?

    The 10-year Treasury bond has of late broken above the 40-year trend line in place...
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    Why India is the Best Growth Story in Asia

    Why India is the Best Growth Story in Asia

    In India recently for the first time in nearly three years, this writer saw nothing...
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    Will the Fed Squeeze the Consumer Until They Break?

    Will the Fed Squeeze the Consumer Until They Break?

    The reality of stagflation has certainly been confirmed by the latest US data both as...
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    Big Cap Tech Stocks are Still at Risk

    Big Cap Tech Stocks are Still at Risk

    There was an interesting development in the US stock market in April. There were significant...
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    Can China Afford to Lose Control of COVID?

    Can China Afford to Lose Control of COVID?

    Attention has returned to the conflict in Ukraine with the launch of the Russian offensive...
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    A World Tour of Interest Rate Policies

    A World Tour of Interest Rate Policies

    Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was always likely that US inflation would peak with...
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    Will Alternative Investments Cause a Lehman Moment?

    Will Alternative Investments Cause a Lehman Moment?

    Quantitative tightening is now officially on the agenda. The Fed decided in early May to...
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    An End to the Ukraine War Could Signal the End of Fed Tightening

    An End to the Ukraine War Could Signal the End of Fed Tightening

    It has always been likely that the outcome of Russia’s invasion would be binary. Either...
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    What Comes Next for Global Markets

    What Comes Next for Global Markets

    The US bond market continues to react to the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric. The...
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    Stocks Think Inflation has Peaked, Economic Data Says Otherwise

    Stocks Think Inflation has Peaked, Economic Data Says Otherwise

    The US yield curve has flattened significantly this year, ever since the release of the...
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    Is the Chinese Renminbi about to become the World’s New Reserve Currency?

    Is the Chinese Renminbi about to become the World’s New Reserve Currency?

    There is an air of Western triumphalism in the air as regards the effectiveness of...
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    The ESG Boom has Peaked

    The ESG Boom has Peaked

    The ESG boom may have peaked in the fourth quarter of last year. If that...
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    First Ukraine, Next Taiwan?

    First Ukraine, Next Taiwan?

    Conditions for financial markets remain the inverse of Goldilocks. Stagflation appears to be ever more...
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    The Japanese Yen Selloff Will Continue

    The Japanese Yen Selloff Will Continue

    If inflation and the commencement of a Federal Reserve tightening cycle have been dominating newsflow...
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    Growth Stocks Aren’t Out of The Woods Yet

    Growth Stocks Aren’t Out of The Woods Yet

    The change in equity market leadership looks ever more pronounced in terms of the shift...
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    How Much Market Pain Will it Take to Reverse Fed Policy?

    How Much Market Pain Will it Take to Reverse Fed Policy?

    Those looking for a respite in the inflation scare are not getting it. Cyclical stocks...
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    When Does the Stock Market Trigger the Infamous Fed “Put”?

    When Does the Stock Market Trigger the Infamous Fed “Put”?

    No one should be surprised to see markets attempting to rally after the tumultuous start...
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    6 Fed Rate Hikes, Yeah Right!

    6 Fed Rate Hikes, Yeah Right!

    It remains all about the coming Fed tightening cycle, not only in terms of rate...
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    Will China Ever Give Up On COVID Lockdowns?

    Will China Ever Give Up On COVID Lockdowns?

    If this writer has continued to give the mainland authorities the benefit of the doubt...
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    Bond Investors Should Zig When the Fed Zags

    Bond Investors Should Zig When the Fed Zags

    The contrast between the US and China monetary cycles has become crystal clear in recent...
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    Bank Lending Holds the Key to Future Inflation

    Bank Lending Holds the Key to Future Inflation

    The pro-cyclical inflation story keeps building as market pundits have competed to increase their 2022...
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    If the US Forces an Energy Transition, Inflation Will Follow

    If the US Forces an Energy Transition, Inflation Will Follow

    The Time “person” of the year award is often something easy to make fun of...
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    The Taper Tantrum Ain’t Over Yet

    The Taper Tantrum Ain’t Over Yet

    This writer remains of the view that the US CPI report is now the most...
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    Can Disruptive Investing Survive Higher Interest Rates?

    Can Disruptive Investing Survive Higher Interest Rates?

    There is no doubt that expectations of monetary tightening are accelerating as reflected in the...
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    All Eyes are On the Fed’s Favorite Gauge of Inflation

    All Eyes are On the Fed’s Favorite Gauge of Inflation

    Shoot first and ask questions later. This is the perhaps understandable and certainly predictable response...
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    Japanese Stocks Could Outperform All if Inflation Isn’t Transitory

    Japanese Stocks Could Outperform All if Inflation Isn’t Transitory

    The inflation debate continues to percolate as the Federal Reserve has finally dropped the word...
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    China and Hong Kong Real Estate are in Good Shape Despite the Headlines

    China and Hong Kong Real Estate are in Good Shape Despite the Headlines

    Recently in Hong Kong this writer can report that Hong Kong maintains its distinctive energy....
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    Crypto Yields Are Slowly Killing the Dollar

    Crypto Yields Are Slowly Killing the Dollar

    The Federal Reserve announced at its 2-3 November meeting the commencement of tapering as expected....
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    The Big Winner of China Housing Fears? The Stock Market

    The Big Winner of China Housing Fears? The Stock Market

    Concerns continue to percolate about the Chinese property market with the Federal Reserve recently warning...
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    How Nordstream 2 Could Cause a Global Market Selloff

    How Nordstream 2 Could Cause a Global Market Selloff

    There is no doubt that investors’ focus of late has been on the stagflation story....
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    Inflation Ain’t Falling While Rents, Wages and Commodities are On the Rise

    Inflation Ain’t Falling While Rents, Wages and Commodities are On the Rise

    The world is set up for the ironic spectacle of mounting pressure from Washington on...
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    Stagflation Risks are Real in a World of Energy Shortages

    Stagflation Risks are Real in a World of Energy Shortages

    It is both interesting and logical that the Federal Reserve signal late last month that...
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    Sleep on the Indian Stock Market at Your Own Risk

    Sleep on the Indian Stock Market at Your Own Risk

    The Indian stock market has remained extraordinarily resilient since the Delta wave peaked in May....
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    How High Can Commodities Take Inflation?

    How High Can Commodities Take Inflation?

    If the Delta variant undoubtedly caused a setback for the cyclical trade last quarter, resulting...
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    Can Government Bond Market Signals Still be Trusted?

    Can Government Bond Market Signals Still be Trusted?

    As the daily noise in the financial markets continues to focus on every word uttered...
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    Government’s are Coming for Big Tech, Should you be Worried?

    Government’s are Coming for Big Tech, Should you be Worried?

    Reports out of the mainland of late have seen a lot of discussion on President...
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    $4.5 Trillion of Stimulus is What Matters, Not the Fed Taper

    $4.5 Trillion of Stimulus is What Matters, Not the Fed Taper

    In the “big picture” this writer continues to believe that central banks are becoming less...
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    China Thinks the US Will Blink First in the Trade War

    China Thinks the US Will Blink First in the Trade War

    The Chinese renminbi remains in an upward trend against the US dollar, even though the...
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    The End of the Stock Market Rebound is Only One COVID Mutation Away

    The End of the Stock Market Rebound is Only One COVID Mutation Away

    The bias towards the pro-cyclical view here has in part been based on the assumption...
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    The US Listed Chinese ADR is Dead, Invest in the Mainland Instead

    The US Listed Chinese ADR is Dead, Invest in the Mainland Instead

    Staying on the subject of last week’s article on China, a risk of late is...
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    To Survive China’s Market Crackdown: Pick Your Sectors Wisely

    To Survive China’s Market Crackdown: Pick Your Sectors Wisely

    There has been an almost perfect storm in recent weeks in terms of Chinese regulatory...
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    Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals

    Rising Rents Feed Inflation, While Lower Bond Yields Trip Up Cyclicals

    The June US CPI data came in well above consensus while the July data, released...
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    Do Bond Investors Know Something about the Virus We Don’t?

    Do Bond Investors Know Something about the Virus We Don’t?

    It is always easy to come up with ex post facto rationalizations of market action....
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    Owning Bonds is a Losers Game in a World of Unorthodox Money Policies

    Owning Bonds is a Losers Game in a World of Unorthodox Money Policies

    The biggest risk to the pro-cyclical view has always been that the vaccines cease to...
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    The Asset Speculation Game is Far from Over

    The Asset Speculation Game is Far from Over

    Base effects mean the real test of whether the pickup in inflation will prove transitory...
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    A Third Major Oil Crisis is on the Horizon

    A Third Major Oil Crisis is on the Horizon

    A positive view is maintained here on the oil price. Indeed oil has the potential...
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    China’s Currency and Export Strength Show No Signs of Slowing Down

    China’s Currency and Export Strength Show No Signs of Slowing Down

    Aside from the human death toll inflicted by Covid-19, the big story about Covid-19 has...
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    Will China’s Crypto Crackdown Push Bitcoin into the Arms of the West?

    Will China’s Crypto Crackdown Push Bitcoin into the Arms of the West?

    This column discussed last week the intensifying Chinese crackdown on crypto assets which is viewed...
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    Bitcoins Energy Problem and China’s Crypto Crackdown

    Bitcoins Energy Problem and China’s Crypto Crackdown

    The Bitcoin price and the rest of the crypto universe has come under severe selling...
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    Investors Aren’t Worried About Inflation, Maybe They Should Be.

    Investors Aren’t Worried About Inflation, Maybe They Should Be.

    Despite the sell-off in cyclical stocks triggered by the Federal Reserve meeting last week, the...
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    What Will the Fed Do As Inflation Marches Higher

    What Will the Fed Do As Inflation Marches Higher

    Inflationary pressures have continued to show up in the official data even as the bond...
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    Do Banks Hold the Key to Higher Inflation?

    Do Banks Hold the Key to Higher Inflation?

    It is interesting that FAANG stocks still look like they have peaked out against the...
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    Only One Thing Can Derail the Post-COVID Stock Recovery

    Only One Thing Can Derail the Post-COVID Stock Recovery

    Watching inflation expectations remains key for investors even as the Federal Reserve has remained predictably...
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    Investors are Flocking to China as Governments Print Money

    Investors are Flocking to China as Governments Print Money

    China’s orthodox monetary policy continues to be in stark contrast to the G7 world. It...
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    Are US Regulators Coming for Bitcoin?

    Are US Regulators Coming for Bitcoin?

    One of the identifying characteristics of the crypto currency space is that crypto assets trade...
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    Inflation Could Drive a Massive Rotation from Bonds to Stocks

    Inflation Could Drive a Massive Rotation from Bonds to Stocks

    If an inflation scare is coming, it did not come with the March CPI inflation...
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    The Biggest Inflation Scare Since the 1980’s is Coming

    The Biggest Inflation Scare Since the 1980’s is Coming

    The cyclical rebound in America should continue to surprise on the upside in terms of...
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    The Energy and Bank Stock Rebound Will Continue, Buy the Dip

    The Energy and Bank Stock Rebound Will Continue, Buy the Dip

    There has been a bit of a pullback in the cyclical trade with US energy...
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    Eurozone Yield Curve Control is Happening, is This Bad for the Euro?

    Eurozone Yield Curve Control is Happening, is This Bad for the Euro?

    The Federal Reserve statement at the last FOMC meeting in March displayed no concern about...
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    China is the One Safe Haven for Bond Investors

    China is the One Safe Haven for Bond Investors

    One recommended trade here for global bond investors has been to sell US Treasury bonds,...
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    Regulation of Big Tech is Underappreciated by the Market

    Regulation of Big Tech is Underappreciated by the Market

    The view here remains that the Big Tech stocks’ market capitalisation peaked as a percentage...
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    No Rate Hikes Until 2023 – Or Maybe Not…

    No Rate Hikes Until 2023 – Or Maybe Not…

    The benefit of the doubt continues to be given to the cyclical trade, which also...
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    The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum

    The Post-COVID Rebound Will Benefit Commodities – But Beware A Taper Tantrum

    The US bond market sell-off has continued and with it the increased potential for an...
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    Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?

    Inflation About to Run Hot, Will Government’s Panic?

    Inflation expectations remain the key variable to monitor. The US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectations...
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    The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines

    The Cyclical Rebound Hinges on the Success of COVID Vaccines

    Covid cases continue to decline on a global basis as vaccine rollouts continue. The 7-day...
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    Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide

    Bull Market Correction or Nasty Unwind – Bond Investors Will Decide

    The view here remains to continue to favour the back-to-normal cyclical trade on the view...
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    The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First

    The Bond Market vs Yield Curve Control: Who Blinks First

    The base case here since May 2020 has been that the Federal Reserve will adopt...
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    Coming to America – Yield Curve Control

    Coming to America – Yield Curve Control

    This column has tended to focus primarily on monetary policy as it relates to the...
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    India is Starting a Cyclical Recovery – Buy Indian Stocks

    India is Starting a Cyclical Recovery – Buy Indian Stocks

    As good a stock market investment story in Asia as any is India. The Indian...
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    The “Passive Put” and Tesla’s Bitcoin Wildcard

    The “Passive Put” and Tesla’s Bitcoin Wildcard

    The advice here remains to stick with the “back to normal” trade despite the scare...
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    China Still a Manufacturing Powerhouse. Buy the RMB, Sell the Dollar.

    China Still a Manufacturing Powerhouse. Buy the RMB, Sell the Dollar.

    The US Dollar Index has over the past week fallen to its lowest level since...
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    Southern European Stocks Looking Juicy Driven by Gov’t Bond Buying

    Southern European Stocks Looking Juicy Driven by Gov’t Bond Buying

    That a mass roll-out of vaccines is now on the horizon, on a six-month view,...
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    Post-COVID Liftoff: Cyclicals, Gold & Bitcoin

    Post-COVID Liftoff: Cyclicals, Gold & Bitcoin

    If anybody was in any doubt that cyclical stocks would rally sharply on the re-opening...
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    The Landscape is Shifting for Chinese Fintech

    The Landscape is Shifting for Chinese Fintech

    The US presidential election appears to be finally over. But it remains unclear how the...
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    How the Fed Reacts to a Vaccine Driven Recovery Will Determine the Market’s Fate

    How the Fed Reacts to a Vaccine Driven Recovery Will Determine the Market’s Fate

    As the media focuses on the closely contested US presidential race, as well as, of...
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    With a Blue Wave Likely, is Big Tech in Trouble?

    With a Blue Wave Likely, is Big Tech in Trouble?

    The “Blue Wave” is clearly the base case in the forthcoming US presidential election. Still,...
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    Expensive Green New Deal will Drive Energy Prices Higher not Lower

    Expensive Green New Deal will Drive Energy Prices Higher not Lower

    The Economist has a long-established tradition of contrarian cover signals, as have other business magazines,...
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    Developed Market Bonds are Dead Money, Buy Discounted Cyclicals

    Developed Market Bonds are Dead Money, Buy Discounted Cyclicals

    Is this really the top for Big Tech’s leadership of the US stock market, and...
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    China Offers Safety in a World of Central Banks Gone Crazy

    China Offers Safety in a World of Central Banks Gone Crazy

    The Federal Reserve has duly delivered on the expected softening of the inflation target in...
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    Gold Secular Bull Market Intact, Target Price $5,500/oz

    Gold Secular Bull Market Intact, Target Price $5,500/oz

    Gold's Resilience Despite Weak Physical Markets in India & China Gold continues to behave in...
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    COVID Cases Contained In America and Economic Data Remains Resilient

    COVID Cases Contained In America and Economic Data Remains Resilient

    COVID-19 Cases: Contained in America, Surging in Europe It continues to look as if new...
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    Trump’s Future Depends on the Path of COVID-19

    Trump’s Future Depends on the Path of COVID-19

    European Fiscal Union & US Dollar Weakness There have been several reasons why the US...
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    Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher

    Fed Yield Curve Control will Drive the US Dollar Lower and Valuations of Growth Stocks Higher

    Barbell Strategy of  Cyclical & Growth Stocks The base case remains that cyclical stocks will...
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    COVID-19 Data Fades While US-China Tensions Flare Up

    COVID-19 Data Fades While US-China Tensions Flare Up

    US COVID-19 Data Improving Attention remains front and center on the data for cases and...
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    The China Money Printer is Idle, Overweight China

    The China Money Printer is Idle, Overweight China

    China's Policy Driven Bull Market The Chinese stock market has resumed rallying since the start...
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    A Second Wave of COVID-19 is a “Buy the Dip” Event

    A Second Wave of COVID-19 is a “Buy the Dip” Event

    More Pandemic, More Fed Bailout There remain legitimate reasons for concerns about second waves, even...
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    America Will do Whats Necessary to Avoid Turning a Liquidity Crisis into a Credit Crisis.

    America Will do Whats Necessary to Avoid Turning a Liquidity Crisis into a Credit Crisis.

    The re-opening dynamic has clearly been a positive factor. Still, the most plausible explanation for...
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    A US-China Cold War and the Future of Hong Kong

    A US-China Cold War and the Future of Hong Kong

    China Relations: The White House isn't Mincing Words There have been rising concerns of late...
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    The Gold Bull Market – Approaching Blue Sky Breakout

    The Gold Bull Market – Approaching Blue Sky Breakout

    Unprecedented Central Bank Money Printing is the Reason to Own Gold The massive increase in...
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    Negative Rates or Not, Inflation’s at Your Doorstep

    Negative Rates or Not, Inflation’s at Your Doorstep

    Will the Market Force Powell's Hand on Negative Rates? One assumption Grizzle has been making...
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    When Does the Economic Harm Outweigh the Quarantine Solution?

    When Does the Economic Harm Outweigh the Quarantine Solution?

    The S&P500 has rallied 31% off the post-crash low of 2,192 reached on 23 March...
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    Is the Fed Propping up Both Bond and Stock Markets?

    Is the Fed Propping up Both Bond and Stock Markets?

    The multiple stimulus policies announced worldwide are all very interesting. Still, what counts most in...
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    Europe Will Provide the Coronavirus Signal to Buy Risky Assets

    Europe Will Provide the Coronavirus Signal to Buy Risky Assets

    Amidst the current volatility in markets, it needs to be remembered that stimulating economic activity...
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    Coronavirus a Crisis Test for China’s Communist Party and President Xi

    Coronavirus a Crisis Test for China’s Communist Party and President Xi

    The Coronavirus has continued to drive market sentiment with the S&P500 testing its late 2018...
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    The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Increasingly the World’s Problem

    The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Increasingly the World’s Problem

    The coronavirus newsflow continues. But the focus of concern has switched dramatically from Asia to...
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    Stock Research

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    Uranium: An Attractive Relative Value Setup + The Optionality of M&A

    In the face of AI and technology stocks rallying on a daily basis, uranium feels like the forgotten stepchild of growth.

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    Why The Bond Bear Market Marches On

    The announcement by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in late June that it was raising its forecast for America’s fiscal deficit this year to US$1.915tn, by 27% from US$1.507tn in four short months since the previous estimate in February, is proof, if it was needed, that federal government finances are out of control.

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    Breaking Down the Popularity and Risks of Private Debt

    Private credit is the booming asset class, an asset class which has done a brilliant job taking advantage of the market opportunity provided by the heavy regulation of the US commercial banking sector following the 2008 financial crisis.

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    ETF Research

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    $140 Billion of Tech ETFs are Broken in the Era of AI

    The value proposition for passive ETF index investing is straightforward: low cost, liquidity and market index performance – this is the unwritten promise between asset managers and the clients plowing $13 trillion into funds tracking indices.

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    Videos

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    The Shareholder Yield Advantage: Focus on Small & Micro-Caps - MYLD ETF

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    West Red Lake Gold: The Future is Bright for Mining

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