The US Economy is Strong…But for How Much Longer?

The base case remains that the US is heading into a downturn in 2024 as signaled by the collapse in M2 growth. Still there is no doubt that the Federal Reser... Read More»

The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt

Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC meeting last week saying at the post-meeting press conference: I don't thin... Read More»

Investors Left Hong Kong Real Estate for Dead, Should You?

If sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains super depressed, the same also applies to domestic Hong Kong stocks. It remains incredible that Hong Kong-focused... Read More»

What Do Japanese Stocks and US Small Business Have in Common?

This writer’s main candidates for the areas to blow up if there is a recession in the US as a consequence of monetary tightening remain private equity and priva... Read More»

Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no Paul Volcker with his comments at the December FOMC meeting when he s... Read More»

With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren’t We in a Recession Already?

The action in Big Tech stocks has continued to be amazingly resilient, helped by the AI story, positive cash flow generation and the fact that these are global ... Read More»

Move Over China, Here Comes India

From a market standpoint, as opposed to a geopolitical one, there has so far been remarkably little fallout from recent events in the Middle East. That said,... Read More»

With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?

The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that the US monetary cycle is over in the sense of no more rate hikes, a view shared... Read More»

Move Over Core Inflation, Headline is All that Matters Now

Amidst the never ending focus on Federal Reserve policy there remains the remarkably undiscussed issue of exactly which measure of inflation the Powell Fed is a... Read More»

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