Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table

The US employment data has remained critical for the many hoping for a resumption of Fed easing, be it owners of gold or private equity titans. In this respe... Read More»

The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt

Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC meeting last week saying at the post-meeting press conference: I don't thin... Read More»

Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no Paul Volcker with his comments at the December FOMC meeting when he s... Read More»

With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?

The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that the US monetary cycle is over in the sense of no more rate hikes, a view shared... Read More»

When Does the Stock Market Trigger the Infamous Fed “Put”?

No one should be surprised to see markets attempting to rally after the tumultuous start to the year. Bear markets need pauses to refresh just as bull markets ... Read More»

6 Fed Rate Hikes, Yeah Right!

It remains all about the coming Fed tightening cycle, not only in terms of rate hikes but also Fed balance sheet contraction. And, unfortunately for stock ma... Read More»

Could Coronavirus be the Catalyst for Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Merge?

It is my view that cutting interest rates is not appropriate for fighting an epidemic. But, unsurprisingly, this has not stopped the Federal Reserve cutt... Read More»

Short-term Interest Rates Likely to Fall, Slowing U.S. Economy

I remain firmly of the view that the next move in interest rates in the U.S. will be a cut, not a hike. The view here also remains firmly that the way the U... Read More»

How the Fed is Overshooting its Inflation Target

There would seem little doubt about it, hopes for the normalization of monetary policy, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s relatively straig... Read More»