While Tariffs Bite, Inflation and International Stocks Will Keep Rising

The attention continues to shift from DOGE to the tariff threat and deteriorating US economic data. It is worth listing a few of the negative data points aga... Read More»

How Likely is a Run on the US Dollar?

Debt Brake, What Debt Brake These are historic times in global politics and economics. Take Europe, for example. The US decision to hold talks directly w... Read More»

Own the AI Picks and Shovels, Not the Models

With the US stock market’s dramatic decline in recent days triggered by the 2 April tariff announcement, the base case remains that the Federal Reserve will fud... Read More»

The Current State of the US Economy – Lower Rates and AI Angst

The Federal Reserve has remained on pause at last week’s FOMC meeting as regards interest rates which is only to be expected. That said, the base case is tha... Read More»

Why an Emergency Rate Cut is Now on the Table

The US employment data has remained critical for the many hoping for a resumption of Fed easing, be it owners of gold or private equity titans. In this respe... Read More»

The Pitfalls of Owning US Debt

Jerome Powell stepped back from his uber dovish tone in December at the January FOMC meeting last week saying at the post-meeting press conference: I don't thin... Read More»

Japan’s Labor Market Holds the Clues to Future Stock Performance

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reminded everybody, if it was needed, that he is no Paul Volcker with his comments at the December FOMC meeting when he s... Read More»

With Rates Down Big, How Can a Hard Landing Still be on the Table?

The bond market has staged a big rally of late helped by growing confidence that the US monetary cycle is over in the sense of no more rate hikes, a view shared... Read More»

When Does the Stock Market Trigger the Infamous Fed “Put”?

No one should be surprised to see markets attempting to rally after the tumultuous start to the year. Bear markets need pauses to refresh just as bull markets ... Read More»

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