The Real Sticking Point in China-US Negotiations

The path is set for another Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting on Wednesday following the latest inflation data even though reported inflation is still well ab... Read More»

Understanding China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign

China remains the best example of a country which has not succumbed to the pressure tactics so effectively deployed against many other countries by the current ... Read More»

An Emboldening Trump is a Risk to Future Stock Gains

The US stock market continues to celebrate the AI capex trade while ignoring the tariff noise based on the TACO viewpoint, or what is otherwise known as the Tru... Read More»

What is the Right Tariff Rate for China?

The IMF-World Bank Spring meeting talking shop in Washington in late April served a highly useful function. It provided the venue for Treasury Secretary Scot... Read More»

Why The Time Has Come to Overweight International Stocks

Whatever the exact trigger, the extraordinarily recent sharp appreciation of Taiwan’s currency, the NT dollar, is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the US do... Read More»

US or China – Who has the Stronger Negotiating Position in Trade Talks?

The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as previously discussed here (see In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ac... Read More»

The Financial Assets Most at Risk From Trump’s “Bull in a China Shop” Strategy

The 47th president has continued to behave like the proverbial bull in a China shop. This is fundamentally bad for all US financial assets, particularly Trea... Read More»

In Tariff Negotiations, Trump Has No Ace Up His Sleeve

“What’s Trump’s ace up his sleeve? What’s the weapon that he can legitimately use to inflict real pressure on China and push them to the negotiating table with ... Read More»

China Needs America Less Than You Think

Faced with The Donald Trump-triggered tariff war in recent weeks, China has become more focused on stabilizing domestic demand even if it has not been panicked ... Read More»