Egg Head Economists at the Fed Think Deflation Has to Be Avoided – It Doesn’t

The focus of financial markets this week has again been the U.S.-China trade deal triggered by the much Twitter-driven news dynamic courtesy of the Donald. ... Read More»

How the Fed is Overshooting its Inflation Target

There would seem little doubt about it, hopes for the normalization of monetary policy, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s relatively straig... Read More»

“Risk On” Market Remains the Base Case but There is One Big Risk

Strategist Christopher Wood write about the risk-on market being the base case and the biggest risk to the market.... Read More»

The US Tax Reform GDP Sugar Rush Coming to an End

The base case here remains that the 2Q18 US GDP will mark the peak of growth in this cycle on the 'sugar rush' of Donald Trump’s tax reform. Still, the l... Read More»

Electric Car Hype Sows the Seeds for a Future Inflationary Oil Price Spike

“Oil forecast to hit peak demand by 2036”. Such was the headline in a newspaper article recently (see Financial Times article: “Oil forecast to hit peak demand ... Read More»

Strong Oil Prices Stoking the US Inflation Narrative

The latest inflation data has seen the Fed’s favourite inflation measure reach the 2% target. Headline PCE inflation and core PCE inflation rose from 1.7% Y... Read More»

More Hawk than Dove? Will Powell’s Fed Remove Monetary Punch Bowl

With money markets now discounting three Fed rate hikes this year, and maybe even four, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield approaching 3% again, the attitu... Read More»

Gold, Bond and FX Markets Not Buying Forecast Fed Interest Rate Hikes

The new Federal Reserve chairman’s first FOMC meeting this week, and subsequent press conference, has confirmed that Jerome Powell is not an egghead obsesse... Read More»

The Financial Engineering of Corporate America

Investment strategist Christopher Wood writes about financial engineering in corporate America, and the shocking lack of tangible book value in the S&P 500. Also, how a strong US economy and higher inflation will be a negative for the US stock market.... Read More»