Is More Pain to Come for Indian Stocks From Trump’s 50% Export Tariffs?

27 August was the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday in India. But it was not a happy day in the country in the specific sense that the Trump administration went ahead... Read More»

Is Trump’s Focus on Low Yields and Low Volatility Good for Your Wallet?

There is no doubt that the Trump administration remains focused on getting the cost of debt servicing down. The strategy seems to be to try to grow out of Amer... Read More»

The Real Sticking Point in China-US Negotiations

The path is set for another Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting on Wednesday following the latest inflation data even though reported inflation is still well ab... Read More»

What if Chinese AI Stocks are the Better Value

The view here has been that the US made an all time peak as a percentage of world stock market capitalisation, as measured by MSCI All Country World, on 24 Dece... Read More»

Understanding China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign

China remains the best example of a country which has not succumbed to the pressure tactics so effectively deployed against many other countries by the current ... Read More»

The Recession That Never Was

The base case remains for a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (i.e. this Wednesday) even though inflation is still running well above the 2% tar... Read More»

An Exploration of Trump’s View on Crypto, Short Term Treasuries and Yield Curve Control

“Trump and hubris” is a phrase that has come to mind of late. It in part refers to the American president’s undoubted growing confidence that his tariff agen... Read More»

An Emboldening Trump is a Risk to Future Stock Gains

The US stock market continues to celebrate the AI capex trade while ignoring the tariff noise based on the TACO viewpoint, or what is otherwise known as the Tru... Read More»

The Stock Market is Eating The Economy

The US stock market remains extremely resilient in the face of the rise in tariffs. Indeed, the S&P 500 is now trading at a record price to sales ratio o... Read More»

Global Strategy