Can Share Buybacks and Fed Easing Hold Up the Market?

The ludicrous algos have continued to send share prices higher as central bankers have continued to compete to sound more dovish. But I do not really trust ... Read More»

Short-term Interest Rates Likely to Fall, Slowing U.S. Economy

I remain firmly of the view that the next move in interest rates in the U.S. will be a cut, not a hike. The view here also remains firmly that the way the U... Read More»

Has the Economy Reached a State of “Benign Equilibrium”?

The change of stance by the Federal Reserve has naturally raised hopes that the U.S. economic cycle has achieved a so-called “benign equilibrium”, where gro... Read More»

The End of U.S. Monetary Tightening a Tailwind for Emerging Markets and Gold

The past year was a disastrous year for investors in the sense that U.S. dollar cash outperformed all stock markets and most bond markets and, so far at lea... Read More»

Turkish Turmoil as US Fiscal Easing and Monetary Tightening Continues

The US dollar index has recently broken above the 95 'resistance level'. The index rose to 96.98 on August 15 in a dollar rally triggered by the recent coll... Read More»

US Market Vexed: Trade War + Monetary Tightening

Monetary Tightening Remains the Single Biggest Risk to the US Market There has been a lot of talk about trade wars in recent weeks. But the biggest risk to t... Read More»