Pepsi Needs Cannabis More than Cannabis Needs Pepsi

Bottom Line: When the CFO of Pepsi said the company is not looking at the cannabis industry, the stock tanked by 1.8%. The same day the CFO went on CNBC to walk back his comments and said the company is looking at the cannabis industry critically.

Any consumer goods company that isn’t looking to enter the cannabis industry looks flat-footed to investors and is putting their stock price at risk. The revenue potential of cannabis is intoxicating to companies with stagnating sales. We expect many more corporate tie-ups and even a buy-out or two within the next 12 months in cannabis. Our favourite targets are Aphria and Canntrust.

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CannTrust Looking for More Than One Partner

Bottom Line: Every big cannabis producer is actively talking with potential partners in the beverage, cosmetics, and food industries. We think most LPs will sign some sort of deal in the months to come, but the structure of deals, whether equity investment or joint ventures, will depend on the attractiveness of the LP to an outside partner.

Source: CannTrust

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Aurora Cannabis Listing on NYSE Shortly

Bottom Line: All U.S. listed Canadian LPs trade at a premium to Canadian names, making a U.S. listing well worth the effort. Aurora should see a bounce in its stock as investors from America diversify their portfolios away from Tilray, Cronos and Canopy.

Source: Aurora Cannabis

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Washington State Surprises Market, Prohibits Certain Edibles

Bottom Line: Makers of edibles were blindsided by this regulation change. Licensed producers in Canada will have to be prepared to comply with any edibles restriction introduced by the government before they are legalized in October of 2019. Hopefully Canada can learn from Washington’s mistake and ensure a smoother rollout of infused products.

Source: Wikipedia

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CBD May Have to Wait for THC to be Decriminalized in America

Bottom Line: According to a report on the FDA and DEA’s decision to maintain CBD as a schedule 1 controlled substance, it looks more likely only a full decriminalization of cannabis at the national level will make CBD from cannabis legal.

Due to America’s obligations under international drug treaties a full-scale rethinking of America’s drug laws will be needed for any part of the cannabis plant to make it off the controlled substances list. Grizzle thinks legalization could happen by 2020 in America.

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Marijuana Stock Performance for the Week

Global marijuana stocks were down for a second week and it seems pre-legalization euphoria is dissipating. News this week that distribution hiccups may affect legal supply on October 17 did not help the cannabis stocks. The global group as a whole was down 3% this week with Canada names down 5%. The Canadian group as a whole is still up 63% since the Constellation investment in Canopy Growth was announced last month.

There is a significant M&A premium built into most of the large-cap stocks as investors expect large corporations to enter the market through licensed producer buyouts. If these deals don’t occur in the next few months stocks could retrace recent highs.

Market Outlook

The Canopy Constellation deal gave the market some new momentum starting in August which should carry stocks higher at least through the end of the year. Until we have 1 to 3 months of data from the legal market in Canada, investor enthusiasm should continue to push cannabis stocks higher.

Once the Canadian market opens we expect retail and wholesale price compression from a legal oversupply. Falling cannabis prices will pressure producer stocks in the second half of 2019.

Source: New Cannabis Ventures

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United States

New York Marijuana Legalization Looking Favourable as Listening Sessions Move Forward

Legalizing Marijuana: What a Year Has Done for Nevada

New Jersey Townships Banning the Sale of Marijuana

Canada

Celebrity Names And Endorsements Nixed By Cannabis Act

NDP To Table Bill Expunging Canadian Pot Convictions

Ontario Premier Expresses Concern At Public Marijuana Consumption

Apartment Complexes Banning Marijuana Use May Lead To Legal Battles

International

Latin American Cannabis Sector Forecast to Reach $12.7 Billion by 2028

AusCann and Khiron Life Sciences Join Forces in Latin America

Australia Hailed as a “Key and Growing Player in the Exploding Cannabis Field”

The opinions provided in this article are those of the author and do not constitute investment advice. Readers should assume that the author and/or employees of Grizzle hold positions in the company or companies mentioned in the article. For more information, please see our Content Disclaimer.